FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

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JTD
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FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#1 Postby JTD » Sun Aug 08, 2010 1:12 pm

We haven't seen this much inactivity in 30 years! Wowsers.

Here's the link:
I found a link to this on 1 news site this morning.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

A snippet:

Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina and the publication of Emanuel (2005) and Webster et al. (2005), global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half.


Further:
August and September will have to be record activity for the hurricane forecasts to pan out in the North Atlantic


The writer of this post is a PHD at FSU.
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#2 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 08, 2010 3:46 pm

He was against a big season in the Atlantic this year and went for a normal/slightly above season...gotta be honest and say I think thats gonna bust, perhaps quite badly in terms of ACE given some of the signals being thrown out for the peak by the models in the long range but we will see!

Still no doubting its been very slowly globally, apart from the big EPAC burst in June its been pretty pitiful, the WPAC has been nothing short of pathetic!
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Re:

#3 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:03 pm

KWT wrote:He was against a big season in the Atlantic this year and went for a normal/slightly above season...gotta be honest and say I think thats gonna bust, perhaps quite badly in terms of ACE given some of the signals being thrown out for the peak by the models in the long range but we will see!

Still no doubting its been very slowly globally, apart from the big EPAC burst in June its been pretty pitiful, the WPAC has been nothing short of pathetic!


What makes you think the Atlantic could go bust this season?
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Re: FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#4 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:13 pm

We still have the meat of the season ahead. Somehow I don't think it will be a bust. Sometimes it's amazing how conditions that were unfavorable just start melting away come August 15 or so. Suspect we'll see very active September and October.
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#5 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:37 am

Interesting, though of course he'd have a hard time convincing anyone that 2004 or 2005 were anything but slow, though it's true that this year so far there have been a lower than usual number of tropical cyclones worldwide...

And, it does seem that definitely something is "missing" in a sense - must be that giant European magnet (not the Euro - lol)...

August is speeding along, and hard to believe that we are fast approaching the half-way point in the month, so per the statistic that many Atlantic hurricane seasons have ended during September, it's going to be interesting to see whether the annual forecasts were correct or very wrong...

Not being critical here, but if the forecasts are really off (versus just a minor error), then my guess is that some might step back from making these forecasts at all (2006 being the recent year with a very wrong annual forecast), since significant errors can be very costly to the many who have come to make decisions based on them (for example the wrong '06 forecast was very costly to the South Florida Water Management District and the Army Corp of Engineers, since both spent a great deal of time preparing for a busy season that thankfully did not happen)...

I know many cite October as an active month, but in reality October usually is the end of the season, so anything that does form from early or mid October onward (and is a threat to land) is the exception...

In fact, last week TWC (Dr. Knabb) mentioned that the Tropical Atlantic is unlike other areas of the world that see tropical cyclone development, because it is the only area that has a relatively brief active window for the actual development of tropical waves (August-September)...

Frank
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Re: FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#6 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:34 am

It will be extremely educational, in my opinion, if this ends up being a slow season. There has to be something we can learn from it.
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#7 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:54 am

Like the snark on Bonnie on that page:

Bonnie (whirl) (35 ACE = 0.49)
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Re:

#8 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 09, 2010 2:00 pm

Frank2 wrote:Interesting, though of course he'd have a hard time convincing anyone that 2004 or 2005 were anything but slow, though it's true that this year so far there have been a lower than usual number of tropical cyclones worldwide...

And, it does seem that definitely something is "missing" in a sense - must be that giant European magnet (not the Euro - lol)...

August is speeding along, and hard to believe that we are fast approaching the half-way point in the month, so per the statistic that many Atlantic hurricane seasons have ended during September, it's going to be interesting to see whether the annual forecasts were correct or very wrong...

Not being critical here, but if the forecasts are really off (versus just a minor error), then my guess is that some might step back from making these forecasts at all (2006 being the recent year with a very wrong annual forecast), since significant errors can be very costly to the many who have come to make decisions based on them (for example the wrong '06 forecast was very costly to the South Florida Water Management District and the Army Corp of Engineers, since both spent a great deal of time preparing for a busy season that thankfully did not happen)...

I know many cite October as an active month, but in reality October usually is the end of the season, so anything that does form from early or mid October onward (and is a threat to land) is the exception...

In fact, last week TWC (Dr. Knabb) mentioned that the Tropical Atlantic is unlike other areas of the world that see tropical cyclone development, because it is the only area that has a relatively brief active window for the actual development of tropical waves (August-September)...

Frank


Great explanation. You summed up what plenty of people are thinking. I would rather prepare for a higher than normal season only have it not be as bad versus the alternative.
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Re: FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#9 Postby lonelymike » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:24 pm

Thought I would give this thread a bump again since the Atlantic has gone quiet again. Makes ya wonder what's happening with the "spark"?
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Re: FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#10 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:26 pm

We could continue to set some major records because all of the basins are generally quiet right now. Things should be jump starting by now but things are still in neutral.
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Re: FSU: Global cyclone activity remain at 30-year low-ACE falls

#11 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:31 pm

lonelymike wrote:Thought I would give this thread a bump again since the Atlantic has gone quiet again. Makes ya wonder what's happening with the "spark"?


Looks like the flint got wet and needs to dry out or just replaced altogther. :P
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