Global model runs discussion

[lonelymike]

I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.

And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.

[CourierPR]

I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.

And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.

There is a middle ground. I think most of us come to this forum looking for future signs of development in the tropics. The naycasters and doomcasters need to get a grip.

[Steve]

>>And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.

That's bunk. There are very few "doomsdayers" on the forum. However, there are a few people who never miss an opportunity to downcast every potential storm and the season in general. It's August 10th. Nobody who matters is pushing back the starting gates. La Ninas are typically later seasons that can run well into October and November. But I don't even care about that. A season is what it is. For those who continually whined about too much shear and only minimally condusive, basin-wide conditions throughout June, July and Early August, I'll give you one word: DUH! Make sure that you and everyone else who never misses an opportunity to post how nothing is happening or going to happen comes back around at the end of the season and owns up to reality. And certainly, I'll do the same.

Should you want to up the stakes, I'll challenge you and a certain other few people to put up or shut up. Say you get your predicted downseason - let's go 10.6 named storms which is somewhere around the recent average. If the season has less than 10 named storms, I'll retire the alias. If it's 10, it's a push. Over 10? You do the same. Deal? How about I sweeten it up? If there aren't at lest 7 named storms that get west of 60W, I'll eat my crow and not post until next summer. Put your money where your mouth is.

[Weatherfreak000]

>>And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.

That's bunk. There are very few "doomsdayers" on the forum. However, there are a few people who never miss an opportunity to downcast every potential storm and the season in general. It's August 10th. Nobody who matters is pushing back the starting gates. La Ninas are typically later seasons that can run well into October and November. But I don't even care about that. A season is what it is. For those who continually whined about too much shear and only minimally condusive, basin-wide conditions throughout June, July and Early August, I'll give you one word: DUH! Make sure that you and everyone else who never misses an opportunity to post how nothing is happening or going to happen comes back around at the end of the season and owns up to reality. And certainly, I'll do the same.

Should you want to up the stakes, I'll challenge you and a certain other few people to put up or shut up. Say you get your predicted downseason - let's go 10.6 named storms which is somewhere around the recent average. If the season has less than 10 named storms, I'll retire the alias. If it's 10, it's a push. Over 10? You do the same. Deal? How about I sweeten it up? If there aren't at lest 7 named storms that get west of 60W, I'll eat my crow and not post until next summer. Put your money where your mouth is.

I totally agree Steve. Where's there an example of doomsdayers?

I need to see the proof on that.

[Steve]

It's because it doesn't happen. Sure, when there are big storms out there, and they're coming, some people tend to freak. It's human nature. But there are a select unnamed few who troll the forum with an agenda. I understand Frank2 and where he's coming from, but some people just want to promote some kind of agenda. I don't even understand it unless some of them made some low season prediction they're trying to hang onto or whatever. ****, the handwriting for this season's been on the wall for a while - 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 1969 (depending on whose analogs you want to use). Those aren't wimpy seasons. Concentric Upper Lows keep moving east to west across the basin. Two of 3 named storms have been in the Gulf with probably another one before the end of the week. 3 named storms in the Gulf in a year is big in any year (regardless of strength) - but before we even get to August 15th? Yeah. This season's going to be a dud. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain - I mean the setup that's out there right before our very eyes: La Nina, Western-progged ULL's, record high sea surface temps, super low pressure with weaker trade winds down in the MDR. What more could you possibly have to see to understand that things are going to get ugly - particularly ugly if you're a coastal resident of the SE United States of America ( ). It's all as plain as day.

[Blown Away]

It's because it doesn't happen. Sure, when there are big storms out there, and they're coming, some people tend to freak. It's human nature. But there are a select unnamed few who troll the forum with an agenda. I understand Frank2 and where he's coming from, but some people just want to promote some kind of agenda. I don't even understand it unless some of them made some low season prediction they're trying to hang onto or whatever. ****, the handwriting for this season's been on the wall for a while - 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 1969 (depending on whose analogs you want to use). Those aren't wimpy seasons. Concentric Upper Lows keep moving east to west across the basin. Two of 3 named storms have been in the Gulf with probably another one before the end of the week. 3 named storms in the Gulf in a year is big in any year (regardless of strength) - but before we even get to August 15th? Yeah. This season's going to be a dud. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain - I mean the setup that's out there right before our very eyes: La Nina, Western-progged ULL's, record high sea surface temps, super low pressure with weaker trade winds down in the MDR. What more could you possibly have to see to understand that things are going to get ugly - particularly ugly if you're a coastal resident of the SE United States of America ( ). It's all as plain as day.

Who used 2004 as an analog year? Nobody I've seen.

[Steve]

Somebody mentioned it pre-season. In hindsight, it might have been Bastardi in relation to the spray focused or centered toward Florida. But I know I saw it out there somewhere (his were '08, '05, '98 and '95). CSU uses '52, '58, '98 and '05 (December's forecast used 52, 58, 64, 66, 98, 03 and 07 but I think that was based on seasons coming out of El Ninos). Impact Weather used '58, '66, '95 and '98 and noted '05 was close.

Yeah, it had to be in relationship to the spread of impact. I can't go back and look at all those videos, so I'll have to retract '04 from the prior post.

[SootyTern]

Longtime lurker jumping in here.

First off, great posts by Texas Snowman and Steve.

My big problem with people who decide how active the season is going to be before it really starts is how it influences how they perceive the data they see at any moment. Also it seems as if the 'numbers game' is influencing some posters' observations. Someone guessed high, then every cloud is going to blow up into a TC, and vice versa. I appreciate the posters who provide unbiased analysis of what they think is going on at that moment, regardless of their opinion of the season as a whole.

I also agree that it is too soon to declare the 2010 season a 'dud'. We have 2 1/2 more months of peak time to get through. A lot can happen, or not.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS out recently. It develops nothing in the Caribbean or MDR through 13 days....

Hmmm...

[CourierPR]

12Z GFS out recently. It develops nothing in the Caribbean or MDR through 13 days....

Hmmm...

That's one model. Crown Weather tropical discussion mentioned this AM the possibility of development next week between the Bahamas and Bermuda along the end of a stalled frontal system.

[Frank2]

Per the GFS a strong low pressure system (990) is forecast over Hudson Bay by this time next week, so apparently the troughiness in western Atlantic is forecast to continue for at least a little while longer:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

the same loop shows a subtropical high displaced well to the northeast, so we'll see what happens...

Frank

P.S. Oops - didn't realize others had just posted about the GFS (lol) - well, in this case more "no news is good news" is good...

[CourierPR]

Per the GFS a strong low pressure system (990) is forecast over Hudson Bay by this time next week, so apparently the troughiness in western Atlantic is forecast to continue for at least a little while longer:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

the same loop shows a subtropical high displaced well to the northeast, so we'll see what happens...

Frank

P.S. Oops - didn't realize others had just posted about the GFS (lol) - well, in this case more "no news is good news" is good...

Again, it's one model.

[Frank2]

Again, it's one model.

True, but it's been doing a very good job so far this season, and is usually very reliable, especially at the higher latitudes...

[JTD]

13 days from now would be August 23rd. August 23rd is the beginning of the peak. One would expect something by then for sure.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It's because it doesn't happen. Sure, when there are big storms out there, and they're coming, some people tend to freak. It's human nature. But there are a select unnamed few who troll the forum with an agenda. I understand Frank2 and where he's coming from, but some people just want to promote some kind of agenda. I don't even understand it unless some of them made some low season prediction they're trying to hang onto or whatever. ****, the handwriting for this season's been on the wall for a while - 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 1969 (depending on whose analogs you want to use). Those aren't wimpy seasons. Concentric Upper Lows keep moving east to west across the basin. Two of 3 named storms have been in the Gulf with probably another one before the end of the week. 3 named storms in the Gulf in a year is big in any year (regardless of strength) - but before we even get to August 15th? Yeah. This season's going to be a dud. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain - I mean the setup that's out there right before our very eyes: La Nina, Western-progged ULL's, record high sea surface temps, super low pressure with weaker trade winds down in the MDR. What more could you possibly have to see to understand that things are going to get ugly - particularly ugly if you're a coastal resident of the SE United States of America ( ). It's all as plain as day.

Wow,

I have been a member here more than my registration says, had to change my sign on, so ot reflects I am new. Anyway Steve both of your post are so dead on, my hats off to you. People need to becareful what they wish for cause as you said it only takes one big one and it could be ugly.

[KWT]

Again, it's one model.

True, but it's been doing a very good job so far this season, and is usually very reliable, especially at the higher latitudes...

One model that has a known BIAS for overdoing troughing, look at the NOAA model page, its there, the GFS over-amplifies cold shots which effectivly amounts to overdoing troughing and this becomes an increasingly bad problem the furthur out you go, but in fac tits enough of an issue at *84hrs* to be mentioned by NOAA...

[lonelymike]

Geesh Steve its was just an observation no need to go all nuclear on everyone.

Now if the bet was next time you come to Destin I'll buy ya some great grouper at Nick's Seafood or the next time I'm in LA you reciprocate with some great seafood gumbo I can dig that.

My point was and is that it gets a little too intense on both sides. If I did not make that clear it was not my intention to start a flame war.
Both sides are very passionate and have valid points. Sometimes we get carried away.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS. Absolutely nothing interesting out through 16 days......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, the GFS ensembles have a different picture than the new operational GFS by showing a hurricane in the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[gatorcane]

Hey peeps, the GFS ensembles have a different picture than the new operational GFS by showing a hurricane in the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

This is WAAAAY out in the future though.......likely going to change in the next run, 14 days out in the future? That's a long time from now...