CourierPR wrote:I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.
And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.
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CourierPR wrote:I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.
There is a middle ground. I think most of us come to this forum looking for future signs of development in the tropics. The naycasters and doomcasters need to get a grip.lonelymike wrote:CourierPR wrote:I think there is ample model evidence that things will get going shortly and I am growing weary of the naycasters.
And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.
Steve wrote:>>And those who think opposite are growing weary of the doomsdayers. Goes both ways on the board lately.
That's bunk. There are very few "doomsdayers" on the forum. However, there are a few people who never miss an opportunity to downcast every potential storm and the season in general. It's August 10th. Nobody who matters is pushing back the starting gates. La Ninas are typically later seasons that can run well into October and November. But I don't even care about that. A season is what it is. For those who continually whined about too much shear and only minimally condusive, basin-wide conditions throughout June, July and Early August, I'll give you one word: DUH! Make sure that you and everyone else who never misses an opportunity to post how nothing is happening or going to happen comes back around at the end of the season and owns up to reality. And certainly, I'll do the same.
Should you want to up the stakes, I'll challenge you and a certain other few people to put up or shut up. Say you get your predicted downseason - let's go 10.6 named storms which is somewhere around the recent average. If the season has less than 10 named storms, I'll retire the alias. If it's 10, it's a push. Over 10? You do the same. Deal? How about I sweeten it up? If there aren't at lest 7 named storms that get west of 60W, I'll eat my crow and not post until next summer. Put your money where your mouth is.
Steve wrote:It's because it doesn't happen. Sure, when there are big storms out there, and they're coming, some people tend to freak. It's human nature. But there are a select unnamed few who troll the forum with an agenda. I understand Frank2 and where he's coming from, but some people just want to promote some kind of agenda. I don't even understand it unless some of them made some low season prediction they're trying to hang onto or whatever. ****, the handwriting for this season's been on the wall for a while - 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 1969 (depending on whose analogs you want to use). Those aren't wimpy seasons. Concentric Upper Lows keep moving east to west across the basin. Two of 3 named storms have been in the Gulf with probably another one before the end of the week. 3 named storms in the Gulf in a year is big in any year (regardless of strength) - but before we even get to August 15th? Yeah. This season's going to be a dud. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain - I mean the setup that's out there right before our very eyes: La Nina, Western-progged ULL's, record high sea surface temps, super low pressure with weaker trade winds down in the MDR. What more could you possibly have to see to understand that things are going to get ugly - particularly ugly if you're a coastal resident of the SE United States of America (). It's all as plain as day.
That's one model. Crown Weather tropical discussion mentioned this AM the possibility of development next week between the Bahamas and Bermuda along the end of a stalled frontal system.gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS out recently. It develops nothing in the Caribbean or MDR through 13 days....
Hmmm...
Again, it's one model.Frank2 wrote:Per the GFS a strong low pressure system (990) is forecast over Hudson Bay by this time next week, so apparently the troughiness in western Atlantic is forecast to continue for at least a little while longer:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
the same loop shows a subtropical high displaced well to the northeast, so we'll see what happens...
Frank
P.S. Oops - didn't realize others had just posted about the GFS (lol) - well, in this case more "no news is good news" is good...
Again, it's one model.
Steve wrote:It's because it doesn't happen. Sure, when there are big storms out there, and they're coming, some people tend to freak. It's human nature. But there are a select unnamed few who troll the forum with an agenda. I understand Frank2 and where he's coming from, but some people just want to promote some kind of agenda. I don't even understand it unless some of them made some low season prediction they're trying to hang onto or whatever. ****, the handwriting for this season's been on the wall for a while - 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, 1969 (depending on whose analogs you want to use). Those aren't wimpy seasons. Concentric Upper Lows keep moving east to west across the basin. Two of 3 named storms have been in the Gulf with probably another one before the end of the week. 3 named storms in the Gulf in a year is big in any year (regardless of strength) - but before we even get to August 15th? Yeah. This season's going to be a dud. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain - I mean the setup that's out there right before our very eyes: La Nina, Western-progged ULL's, record high sea surface temps, super low pressure with weaker trade winds down in the MDR. What more could you possibly have to see to understand that things are going to get ugly - particularly ugly if you're a coastal resident of the SE United States of America (). It's all as plain as day.
Frank2 wrote:Again, it's one model.
True, but it's been doing a very good job so far this season, and is usually very reliable, especially at the higher latitudes...
cycloneye wrote:Hey peeps, the GFS ensembles have a different picture than the new operational GFS by showing a hurricane in the long range.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml
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