ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[DTWright]

Ponder this...**IF** this thing blew up into a Cat 2 or 3 (god forbid worse), residents from Texas to Louisiana have 2-3 days to prepare and evacuate. Talk about an evacuation nightmare...especially for the Houston area with 6 million people!

I wouldn't think that it would be wise to just say residents from Texas to Louisiana . . .

[Ivanhater]

12z UKMET..Louisiana/Mississippi border

[Ikester]

Okay, I'll throw in Mobile just for you! Point being is that NOBODY will have time to prepare if they don't start now for a potential storm. Outside of us, who knows about this and is taking it seriously? Uhhhhh, not many. My dad is golfing this afternoon. 'Son, what's this storm you speak of? It ain't gonna do squat.'

[DTWright]

Okay, I'll throw in Mobile just for you! Point being is that NOBODY will have time to prepare if they don't start now for a potential storm. Outside of us, who knows about this and is taking it seriously? Uhhhhh, not many. My dad is golfing this afternoon. 'Son, what's this storm you speak of? It ain't gonna do squat.'

I know what you mean, and wasn't trying to flame you Brother. You are right though. This one could catch many off-guard.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps Mississippi

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I love Nogaps!! NOT!!!!!!

[Ivanhater]

I love Nogaps!! NOT!!!!!!

Pretty similar to the Euro and UKMET and Canadian

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian: Mobile

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.

[Ivanhater]

:D True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.

I thought you hated the GFS?

[Ikester]

NOGAPS is a joke. Euro lost all credibility with Colin (showing a storm in the gulf for 3 consecutive runs and then bermuda randomly.) Canadian is hit or miss. For somebody that hated the Euro during Alex, you cling to it now. Interesting...

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO lost all cred? LOL...right right.

I can't stand the GFS, but my gut feeling last night "she" was going to end up more west that what models were showing and right now that ol' GFS is the only one showing that.

[Ivanhater]

NOGAPS is a joke. Euro lost all credibility with Colin (showing a storm in the gulf for 3 consecutive runs and then bermuda randomly.) Canadian is hit or miss. For somebody that hated the Euro during Alex, you cling to it now. Interesting...

I actually prefer a blend of a few models, including the Euro. I never pick one and stick to it. It is interesting though that the Euro is touted as being the best with steering and has been consistently showing a central gulf hit and is in line with model guidance.

We are not going to get into another model debate though

[Ikester]

EURO lost all cred? LOL...right right.

I can't stand the GFS, but my gut feeling last night "she" was going to end up more west that what models were showing and right now that ol' GFS is the only one showing that.

LOL, well maybe not all, but come on...it was clueless with Colin.

[tolakram]

One more model barb and I start the happy dance on the red exclamation point.

[wxgirl69]

Just wanna make sure that I am understanding everything that is going on... GFS is pointing towars SE Texas but all other models are stilling pointng towards NOLA..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

:D True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.

I thought you hated the GFS?

Not a big fan of it no! No model is good until something develops anyway!

[tolakram]

Check out all but the euro here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

let the page load and then step through the different images.

Canadian shows a week reflection hitting near NO, while the GFS shows it somewhere near the NE Texas coast. I don't think any model can reliably predict where it is going at this point, which is why a consensus, or plotting all the lines of the reliable models and choosing a point in between, is the best bet.

[Ivanhater]

If anyone wants to get an idea how the NHC track will look, take a look at the TVCN model. They like to match up with that one frequently.

[ROCK]

If anyone wants to get an idea how the NHC track will look, take a look at the TVCN model. They like to match up with that one frequently.

TVCN is a blend of models and not a model in it self.....it weighs different models individually so again I think I would rather hang my hat on a true model EURO,CMC, GFS...in that order....