ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#321 Postby DTWright » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:19 am

Ikester wrote:Ponder this...**IF** this thing blew up into a Cat 2 or 3 (god forbid worse), residents from Texas to Louisiana have 2-3 days to prepare and evacuate. Talk about an evacuation nightmare...especially for the Houston area with 6 million people!


I wouldn't think that it would be wise to just say residents from Texas to Louisiana . . .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#322 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:23 am

12z UKMET..Louisiana/Mississippi border

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#323 Postby Ikester » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:24 am

Okay, I'll throw in Mobile just for you! :lol: Point being is that NOBODY will have time to prepare if they don't start now for a potential storm. Outside of us, who knows about this and is taking it seriously? Uhhhhh, not many. My dad is golfing this afternoon. 'Son, what's this storm you speak of? It ain't gonna do squat.'
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#324 Postby DTWright » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:29 am

Ikester wrote:Okay, I'll throw in Mobile just for you! :lol: Point being is that NOBODY will have time to prepare if they don't start now for a potential storm. Outside of us, who knows about this and is taking it seriously? Uhhhhh, not many. My dad is golfing this afternoon. 'Son, what's this storm you speak of? It ain't gonna do squat.'
I know what you mean, and wasn't trying to flame you Brother. You are right though. This one could catch many off-guard.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#325 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:42 am

Nogaps Mississippi

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#326 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:44 am

I love Nogaps!! :lol: NOT!!!!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#327 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:46 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:I love Nogaps!! :lol: NOT!!!!!!


Pretty similar to the Euro and UKMET and Canadian :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#328 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:48 am

12z Canadian: Mobile

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#329 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:48 am

:D True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.
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Re:

#330 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:49 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote::D True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.


I thought you hated the GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#331 Postby Ikester » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:55 am

NOGAPS is a joke. Euro lost all credibility with Colin (showing a storm in the gulf for 3 consecutive runs and then bermuda randomly.) Canadian is hit or miss. For somebody that hated the Euro during Alex, you cling to it now. Interesting... :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#332 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:59 am

EURO lost all cred? LOL...right right.

I can't stand the GFS, but my gut feeling last night "she" was going to end up more west that what models were showing and right now that ol' GFS is the only one showing that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#333 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:00 pm

Ikester wrote:NOGAPS is a joke. Euro lost all credibility with Colin (showing a storm in the gulf for 3 consecutive runs and then bermuda randomly.) Canadian is hit or miss. For somebody that hated the Euro during Alex, you cling to it now. Interesting... :wink:


I actually prefer a blend of a few models, including the Euro. I never pick one and stick to it. It is interesting though that the Euro is touted as being the best with steering and has been consistently showing a central gulf hit and is in line with model guidance.

We are not going to get into another model debate though :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#334 Postby Ikester » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:00 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:EURO lost all cred? LOL...right right.

I can't stand the GFS, but my gut feeling last night "she" was going to end up more west that what models were showing and right now that ol' GFS is the only one showing that.


LOL, well maybe not all, but come on...it was clueless with Colin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#335 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:16 pm

One more model barb and I start the happy dance on the red exclamation point.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#336 Postby wxgirl69 » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:22 pm

Just wanna make sure that I am understanding everything that is going on... GFS is pointing towars SE Texas but all other models are stilling pointng towards NOLA..
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Re: Re:

#337 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:22 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote::D True, GFS may win this one, we'll see. We'll see once it develops.


I thought you hated the GFS?
Not a big fan of it no! No model is good until something develops anyway!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#338 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:25 pm

Check out all but the euro here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

let the page load and then step through the different images.

Canadian shows a week reflection hitting near NO, while the GFS shows it somewhere near the NE Texas coast. I don't think any model can reliably predict where it is going at this point, which is why a consensus, or plotting all the lines of the reliable models and choosing a point in between, is the best bet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#339 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:27 pm

If anyone wants to get an idea how the NHC track will look, take a look at the TVCN model. They like to match up with that one frequently.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#340 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:If anyone wants to get an idea how the NHC track will look, take a look at the TVCN model. They like to match up with that one frequently.

Image



TVCN is a blend of models and not a model in it self.....it weighs different models individually so again I think I would rather hang my hat on a true model EURO,CMC, GFS...in that order....
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