ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well the Mid level and ill defined LLC are nearly stacked... we should see a increasingly organized system over the next 6 hours as this occurs. radar is going to great to watch tonight...

[Wx_Warrior]

If they found 6 knots of wind, then that's weak.

[kevin]

Whats this about six knots of wind? Surely the hurricane hunters have found higher figures than that..

[KWT]

Its looking like a proper developing system, recon shows its probably not quite there just yet but my gosh it must be pretty close by now, the Vis presentation is looking very neat now.

[tailgater]

Well the Mid level and ill defined LLC are nearly stacked... we should see a increasingly organized system over the next 6 hours as this occurs. radar is going to great to watch tonight...

Almost there AD probably in a few hours, I'll say A TD at 7pm CST.

[Air Force Met]

Well the Mid level and ill defined LLC are nearly stacked... we should see a increasingly organized system over the next 6 hours as this occurs. radar is going to great to watch tonight...

Almost there AD probably in a few hours, I'll say A TD at 7pm CST.

If they didn't upgrade it at 4...they aren't going to do a special at 7. If it has a convective bomb go off between now and 10...then they may upgrade...if not...I doubt we will see an upgrade until tmorrow.

[KWT]

well Im beginning to wonder if we are going to see some significant strengthening tomorrow. The ULL is positioning itself in a very prime location and the outflow over the systems is becoming very symmetric and expansive this afternoon. I think once it establishes a well defined LLC we could see it reach 50 or 60 pretty quickly and I want to bring the chances to hurricane up a little given the synoptic's at the moment.

Yeah I think we will see a strengthening system tomorrow, whilst I'm not sure it'll get up to that strength quite that quickly, the system is looking good and I think we will have a TD in the next 6-12hrs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Got a long way to go in my opinion!

[Ivanhater]

I'm wondering if this has enough time to really get stacked. GFS and Euro, even Canadian don't really have this organizing that much.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

May not have time Ivan.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if it doesn't hit tropical depression status until tomorrow, I still think it will make it to a minimal tropical
storm by landfall, 40 to 45 MPH more than likely..

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 257N, 839W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[mvtrucking]

May not have time Ivan.

Maybe just a nice rainmaker with a stiff breeze..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could be. To dis jointed.

[Sanibel]

Blowing and raining here. The bushes and palms are really shaking.


The satellite presentation and radar are telling you all you need to know. This has snapped together and pushed back against the ULL and developed. Should be something to watch over the next day.

[KWT]

I'm wondering if this has enough time to really get stacked. GFS and Euro, even Canadian don't really have this organizing that much.

The models also didn't do much with Felix...and that obviously became a category-5...sometimes the models just can't see what is going ahead in front of them!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes but this system is disjointed right now.

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah but not to that big of a degree, and the MLC looks pretty potent right now, I remember last time we had that, we had Alex form the next day, hekc with Alex the systems MLC/LLC were like 300 miles apart yet they came together in about the space of 6-9hrs once conditions improve...

[srainhoutx]

Updated 18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 257N, 839W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Slight adjustment SW.

[ozonepete]

One thing's for sure, dry air is no longer a problem. Look at the CIMSS analysis for low and mid-level dry air. A big plus for strengthening if the shear stays down.