brunota2003 wrote:I personally would of gone with 45 or maybe even 50 knots...the set up is there for it to run away, but no guarantee it will. At least if it only gets to 40 knots, the forecast still only busted by 10 knots...whereas if this thing gets to 55 or 60 knots, their forecast will bust by 15 or 20 knots.
They are hugging the models as they usually do with the first advisory, they are putting in all thier eggs into the idea that easterly shear increases...I've got a few doubts about that but we will see...its going to be a slow brewer for the next 6-12hrs though because of the shallow convection but if it does get any deep convection...then the NHC will bust in a matter of hours...