ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

I personally would of gone with 45 or maybe even 50 knots...the set up is there for it to run away, but no guarantee it will. At least if it only gets to 40 knots, the forecast still only busted by 10 knots...whereas if this thing gets to 55 or 60 knots, their forecast will bust by 15 or 20 knots.

They are hugging the models as they usually do with the first advisory, they are putting in all thier eggs into the idea that easterly shear increases...I've got a few doubts about that but we will see...its going to be a slow brewer for the next 6-12hrs though because of the shallow convection but if it does get any deep convection...then the NHC will bust in a matter of hours...

[LSU2001]

NHC Black line directly over DWH well site I guess

[cpdaman]

as the system turns to the WNW and increases speed.....the easterly shear (which blows west).....will seem to have less of a serious effect on it.? yes?....since the net shear is lessened by the 1.forward speed's acceleration .....and centrally 2. the direction of movement (with the shear)..........right?.....i.e less net shear.

also how could they say the "reliable shear models" the shear models have been proven to be the least accurate of any output that is forecasted.....i have seen this time and time again......unless it's a layup with synoptics.

question for promets

are the promets confident that easterly shear will pick up ......and that two the storm moving more in the direction with the shear.....will still be in a hostile enviornment?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

Where is this coming from. I sure don't see any kind of shear that would inhibit strengthening. I thought conditions were supposed to be gradually becoming more favorable for development according to the earlier TWO's.

[yzerfan]

Aargh. I'm five miles due north of the Destin breakpoint, and the window guys are supposed to be here tomorrow to start replacing out old windows with impact glass. We were supposed to be done with that part of the remuddle in June, but it kept getting pushed back. I don't want any more delays on the project, especially since we've got other contractors lined up after the window guys like a series of Cape Verde clippers.

[SunnyThoughts]

[KWT]

BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

Where is this coming from. I thought conditions were supposed to be gradually becoming more favorable for development according to the TWO's.

They are simply going with the models at the moment, I always tend to find these first advisories tend to be more prone to busting simply because the information about the system isn't quite as good.

The structure with TD5 is clearly very good...but it still looks like someones punched a hole in the middle...thats going to have to change if this one is to get much stronger then what the NHC are indicating.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

looks like shear is going to keep yet another system in check. It's important to note the NHC is not thinking hurricane at this point. If there were any kind of possibility, they would most certainly mention it now with landfall in less than 48 hours...

some wind and rain but no big deal out of this one...

[rolltide]

Looks to me that convection is starting to fire up closer to the center on the last visible.

[Ivanhater]

[img]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products[/img].

looks like shear is going to keep yet another system in check. It's important to note the NHC is not thinking hurricane at this point. If there was any kind of possibility, they would most certainly mention it now with landfall in less than 48 hours...

some wind and rain but no big deal out of this one...

They did mention the possibility when they discussed the GFDL. They just said it had a high bias. AFMET mentioned this morning that it could possibly reach a low Cat 1...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I see that hole KWT, but it is not due to shear. I am trying to figure out where they are getting that from. Did I miss something from todays models runs showing shear developing in the gulf.

[gatorcane]

I interpreted that as they are discounting the possibility. Looks like a moderate to strong TS still at this point. Rapid intensification seems very, very unlikely given the syntopic setup.

[KWT]

some wind and rain but no big deal out of this one...

Indeed...alas do I remember a certain system back in 2007 that had people saying a very similar thing...and it was a lot closer to landfall as well...and if I remember rightly was that not a certain hurricane Hemberto?

Anyway not saying that will happen, but its a little too early to make that sort of statement, this could blow up deep convection and be at 50kts by 12hrs time (I don't think that will happen btw...not yet) then obviously its a different ballgame.

ps, I know what your saying though don't get me wrong!

[MGC]

Considering the size of TD5 it will take a while to come together. It should have a little less than two days over the water. The ULL is moving quickly to the west which should allow the shear to relax a bit tomorrow this time. This could provide the window of opportunity to intensify that the GFDL is seeing. Small outside chance of this becoming a hurricane but likely a strong TS with large wind field. Will see what is happening in the morning before we decided how much preps to make. Have a lot of plants and yard furniture to secure.....MHC

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

looks like shear is going to keep yet another system in check. It's important to note the NHC is not thinking hurricane at this point. If there was any kind of possibility, they would most certainly mention it now with landfall in less than 48 hours...

some wind and rain but no big deal out of this one...

there is certainly a possibility .....but i think it is less than 25% in their minds.

they wouldn't necessarily mention it.....just they would mention the usual....stay posted for latest udpates .

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
I interpreted that as they are discounting the possibility. Looks like a moderate to strong TS still at this point. Rapid intensification seems very, very unlikely given the syntopic setup.

Got you, but the possibility is there.

That is reasonable and there really is not much data that would suggest any major variations in track except maybe a more NW motion initially once the LLC consolidates and it rotates northerly. as for strength 50 to 60 is also very reasonable but you cant rule out minimal Hurricane especially if its a little slower. It does not take much to go from 50 to 60 to a hurricane.

Oh...I agree...I think it has a decent chance at cat 1...I'm just making a guess at what their forecast will be.

[tgenius]

It's been pouring here in Miami all day from this system.. we've deff gotten more rain than we did during Bonnie!

[lebron23]

I remember i forecasted Humberto up to 80mph when it developed and this system I dont see doing that. Even though anythings possible.

[Weatherfreak000]

:uarrow:
I interpreted that as they are discounting the possibility. Looks like a moderate to strong TS still at this point. Rapid intensification seems very, very unlikely given the syntopic setup.

What exactly do you believe is going to halt intensification Gatorcane? I'd love to know.

[gatorcane]

Another thing to note: the ULL that is north of the system is also helping to pull in dry air from the SE U.S. The ULL looks like it will continue to head west and end up in the WGOM while TD 5 scoots WNW as a ridge builds into the NE of TD 5. So TD 5 will be in a squeeze play between the ULL and ridge headed WNW/NW and accelerating in the process. This looks very similar to what we saw with Bonnie which just could not get her act together despite boiling SSTs......