KWT wrote:Wow look at 94L on the 18z GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_192m.gif
Yes...thats 94L...back...for a 2nd time at 192hrs!
EURO showed this on last nights solution....wouldnt discount an IVAN II scenario....
ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models
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Re:
EURO showed this on last nights solution....wouldnt discount an IVAN II scenario....
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Rock, as I said the models don't always handle these systems very well, esp when they have cold core origins I've noticed, this may well be one of those times however to be fair most models do show a closed low which we have right now....of course if it gets to say 50-60kts then yeah the models will have busted bar the GFDL.
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dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
ROCK wrote:WHATS really going to be interesting is that none of the models really anticipated the rapid organization we are seeing currently....how does that translate to track and intensity down the road...might not even make LA more towards the Big Bend....it aint moved at all from the last Best Track position...
One of the best analysis I've seen in two days, Rock.
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:KWT wrote:Wow look at 94L on the 18z GFS...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_192m.gif
Yes...thats 94L...back...for a 2nd time at 192hrs!
EURO showed this on last nights solution....wouldnt discount an IVAN II scenario....
Oh your quite right, I've personally learned not to discount any system until it really is gone for good!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
We now have TD #5; Bob Breck, of New Orleans-Fox News has annouced this. TD #5 has 30 mph winds. He indicated this will be updated on the 7pm update.
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
GFS and Euro showed this scenario moving back in the Gulf..Euro actually showed it 2 days ago....
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Michael
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LSU2001
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Not real impressed with breck. Did his Viper model show this?? Watching Carl Arredondo (sp) on Ch. 4 right now and no mention of an upgrade.
Tim
Tim
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LowndesCoFire
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
ROCK wrote:WHATS really going to be interesting is that none of the models really anticipated the rapid organization we are seeing currently....how does that translate to track and intensity down the road...might not even make LA more towards the Big Bend....it aint moved at all from the last Best Track position...
I have been wonderin the same thing...Doesn't look like it has moved much at all. Is this thing possibly heading toward my neck of the woods. I havent thought so, but I havent thrown out the idea either because historical tracks for August head toward NO or Panhandle / Big Bend.
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To be fair this is TD5, just waiting for the advisory to come out now...
Ivanhater, yeah I do remember that...
In fact I suggested a few days this could stall just offshore, looks like that may yet happen but a little big further inland then I was expecting, but the processes that cause it on the models are what I was thinking could happen.
Ivanhater, yeah I do remember that...
In fact I suggested a few days this could stall just offshore, looks like that may yet happen but a little big further inland then I was expecting, but the processes that cause it on the models are what I was thinking could happen.
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LSU2001
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Models
Probably
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LowndesCoFire
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Models
000
WTNT25 KNHC 102330
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010...
...FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT...
WTNT25 KNHC 102330
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
2330 UTC WED AUG 11 2010...
...FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT...
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redfish1
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Models
so does everyone think the models are correct as of now or does anyone think they will possibly shift east or west?
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LowndesCoFire
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Models
redfish1 wrote:so does everyone think the models are correct as of now or does anyone think they will possibly shift east or west?
Im thinking a little more east. NHC cones normally shift after the first one or two advisories. But thats just my opinion.
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Dean4Storms
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18z HWRF looks like NO as a weak TS, then looks like it has 94L doing a loop over the SE States.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9
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Hurricane
Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Models
redfish1 wrote:so does everyone think the models are correct as of now or does anyone think they will possibly shift east or west?
Probably East just like Bonnie.
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SunnyThoughts
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Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:18z HWRF looks like NO as a weak TS, then looks like it has 94L doing a loop over the SE States.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9
Very interesting, a few models are at least hinting at such an outcome...worth watching for in the next few days just in case.
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Dean4Storms
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