ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM TD5 CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL IN EAST-
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EXTENDING WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH THE DAY (VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY). THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS DIDN`T
INDICATE MUCH OF ANY RECENT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY A SLOW EAST DRIFT TOWARD THE GA/AL STATE LINE. THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS POSITION AND TREND AND SHOW
IT BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTH BACK TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE POP/QPF/SKY GRID CONFIGURATION BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK.

[KWT]

Don't know what you're seeing that would make you think that. The MLC appears to be now moving into West Central GA which means the EURO could be correct in bringing it offshore further east around Appalachicola.

Speed up the animation, you can clearly see it moving into GA.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

Just looking at most of the models progging this one reaches the coast and then trends westwards along the coast. The ECM probably the most southerly of the models thought really there is only small differences.

I've said all along though Dean if it makes it into the water, even if only by 5-10 miles it'll probably be enough for the chances of this one to redevelop to shot up.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know what you're seeing that would make you think that. The MLC appears to be now moving into West Central GA which means the EURO could be correct in bringing it offshore further east around Appalachicola.

Speed up the animation, you can clearly see it moving into GA.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

Just looking at most of the models progging this one reaches the coast and then trends westwards along the coast. The ECM probably the most southerly of the models thought really there is only small differences.

I've said all along though Dean if it makes it into the water, even if only by 5-10 miles it'll probably be enough for the chances of this one to redevelop to shot up.

I expect it to get back over the water if not relocated after a strong convective burst offshore overnight Sunday night. Keep in mind this low will be broad and any deep convection offshore should be able to consolidate a low fairly quickly with these warm SST's and a quite favorable UL environment.

[tailgater]

Looking at this radar, EX TD 5 is better defined than yesterday IMHO. But it's still heading Northeast or east northeast. I can't see it making this big loop and getting back in the GOM or along the coast but with all the model support I guess I'll be wrong again.
Uncheck all the boxes below the radar except, radar and you can easy track the circulation you can even zoom in tight.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 0&loop=yes

[vbhoutex]

Looks to be drifting East to me. TLH discussion still says it should start back towards the GOM during the day today. This one has been/is going to be interesting to watch. As much as we now need rain in Houston, I don't like the totals I am seeing in the models if they verify.

[KWT]

That radar looks like its moving perhaps just a little north of east, best start moving southwards soon if its going to get into the Gulf though from the looks of things.

[Pearl River]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1988-prelim/beryl/prelim05.gif

Here's a little tidbit. Beryl 1988 started as a depression over land then moved southeast to the mouth of the Mississippi where she became a storm. Even if it moves south and hugs the coast, it could develop, not saying it will, but it's interesting.

[KWT]

Certainly could PR, I'm keeping a close eye on it because if it gets to the coast then given the current presentation it'd have a chance of redeveloping again.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Surface observations along with satellite imagery support that there is a broad area of low pressure stationed over Alabama. The mid-level circulation is also pushing southeastward getting ready to perform an anticyclonic loop.

[KWT]

This one has been/is going to be interesting to watch..

Yeah I agree with that, the whole set-up is quite an interesting one to watch, esp because the mid level circulation has held very strong, indeed it may even be stronger now then it was when it was in the Gulf for most of the time.

[MGC]

This kinda reminds me of Ivan in 2004 if this happens.....MGC

[Nimbus]

I'm beginning to wonder if the TD5 remnants are going to have any interaction with the tail end of the front off the east coast of Florida. Lots of disorganized convection over there.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like x-TD5 is maybe starting to make it's southward.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[ColinDelia]

There's a TUTT low in the SW Gulf but it is supposed to move into Mexico in 36-48 hours
and then continue W/NW.

[KWT]

Looks like x-TD5 is maybe starting to make it's southward.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Looks like its heading SE now, you can see the clouds to the NW of the system moving SE as well so it makes sense that the system is starting to get shunted back SE/S over the next 24hrs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z High RES EURO paid site has system moving west through Southern LA. to the TX/LA Border by Wed.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 48 hours

[KWT]

Looks just offshore again there Ivanhater but its real close call again!

[MississippiWx]

Hello, everyone. I'm new here, but some of you might recognize my handle from Weather Underground. Seems a lot more civil here, so I might be spending more of my time here.

Anyway, looks like ex-TD5 is going to perform the anticyclonic loop and end up back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I've never seen a tropical system strengthen that close to the Central Gulf of Mexico coastline, so I'm not so sure I believe it will strengthen to a tropical storm. Experience tells me to expect nothing more than a tropical depression. If it moves far enough off-shore, then I'll like its chances more.