Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Blown Away]

This wave coming off the coast is the one the models develop?

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

This wave coming off the coast is the one the models develop?

This is it.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

From now on, lets watch how it evolves as it splashes into the water and enters a new enviroment. We have to see if it merges with the weaker wave in front, where will a true LLC forms and then we can start from there.

[StarmanHDB]

From now on, lets watch how it evolves as it splashes into the water and enters a new enviroment. We have to see if it merges with the weaker wave in front, where will a true LLC forms and then we can start from there.

Well said! After all this time, it's finally put up or shut up time for this wave and all of its model predictions!

[ColinDelia]

From the HPC's Caribbean Forecast Discussion.

"ON THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS ARE
CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION...WITH NEGATIVE MJO ANOMALIES
CONCENTRATING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICA.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE THAT THESE MODELS HAVE REACHED A
CONSENSUS...LETS SEE HOW LONG IT LASTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS THE
GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS...THE
GFS SOMEWHAT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE UKMET. BOTH...HOWEVER...SEEM
SUGGEST THAT IS TIME WE START LOOKING EAST."

[Frank2]

Good morning everyone,

GFS shows a recurve, though its entry into the Atlantic is already north of 15N:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Good morning everyone,

GFS shows a recurve, though its entry into the Atlantic is already north of 15N:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

This one will probably recurve Frank2, but the one behind it probably won't....

[KWT]

Good morning everyone,

GFS shows a recurve, though its entry into the Atlantic is already north of 15N:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

Oh without a doubt this recurves.

We are heading towards Dmin down there in the tropics so the convetion will likely weaken an awful lot in the next 6-9hrs as that occurs and the system gets used to its new set-up...

[cycloneye]

The second system the models develop is in Niger right now but is for another topic.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, the 2nd system is much more south, so I wouldn't think it would recurve. It might be a low rider

[KWT]

The GFS looks way too far north in setting up the 2nd system, that looks nonsense to me!

Still the first wave is still uncertain at least in terms of the evolution in the E.Atlantic, all the other models aren't nearly as agressive and are much slower in trying to develop it...

[CourierPR]

Is this thread going to endure another day where the same few constantly post RECURVE scenarios? Now that the system has hit the water, can we start to discuss the system itself and not the projected models?!

[Vortex]

The second wave should emerge late Thursday/Friday

[cycloneye]

I am eagered to close the thread as soon is invested to then start from square one with the models and the system itself.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of work to do

[CourierPR]

I am eagered to close the thread as soon is invested to then start from square one with the models and the system itself.

AMEN!

[KWT]

You can see where any circulation is going to set-up but like 93L its a little too far north right now in this set-up, its probably dragging in alot of dry air.

Probably won't be an invest for a while yet cycloneye...

[cycloneye]

A lot of work to do

I think as I look closely at the image that the main circulation is still inland over Senegal, by seeing those arking low clouds.