Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

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HURAKAN
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#581 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:53 am

Like I said before, I will get excited when the 1st advisory is written
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#582 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:53 am

This one will probably recurve Frank2, but the one behind it probably won't....


True - but the second one might be too low (LOL)!!!

Kidding - the second wave does seem to be more likely to not recurve, at least early on...

Frank
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#583 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:59 am

According to the NRL Navy test PGI-30L for this wave, the position is 14.2N-15.5W.

Image

Put mouse over pic at link below and you will get the position.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/ ... m&PROD=vis
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#584 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:02 am

Whilst I might be wrong seems quite obvious there is at least some sort of circulation to the north of that location but then again I've not seen the loop so we will see...

14N is probably high enough with the troughy set-up aloft for it to be a big threat but we will see...the CMC obviously throws some doubt out there.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#585 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:07 am

Nice circulation envelope on the WV.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-wv.html
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#586 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:24 am

That loop shows the way this system has plused up and then down with the Durinal cycles.

Also note the ITCZ is fairly decent at the moment, maybe thats what the ECM is picking up on its last few runs with a system trying to develop to the west.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#587 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:40 am

Observations from Dakar, Senegal. Plenty of thunder with some wind direction shifts if there is wind as are very light but nothing to open eyes. :)

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/SN_cc.html

Code: Select all

 
 Time
EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2 light rain with thunder
 10 AM (14) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2 light rain with thunder
 9 AM (13) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Calm light rain with thunder
 8 AM (12) Aug 16 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) N 3 light rain with thunder
 7 AM (11) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) NW 7 rain with thunder
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#588 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:59 am

Here we go with another GFS run developing this system.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#589 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:08 am

84 hours.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#590 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:13 am

102 hours.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#591 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:19 am

126 hours.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#592 Postby canes04 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:21 am

Luis,

I'm still trying to understand how this system plows through the strong high to it's north.
I guess there will be a weakness down the road.

Let's see how it plays out.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#593 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:23 am

canes04 wrote:Luis,

I'm still trying to understand how this system plows through the strong high to it's north.
I guess there will be a weakness down the road.

Let's see how it plays out.


Agree. However,the consistency by GFS is remarkable and it has to be taken in consideration as it sees something that we dont.
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#594 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:24 am

GFS looks a little SW of the previous run but not by a huge amount really. If this was down at 12N by 120hrs then I'd be more worried but the troughing should be enough given how far north it is to recurve.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#595 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:25 am

144 hours.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#596 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:28 am

168 hours.

More west.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#597 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:30 am

That 168 hour position looks like it may get stuck under the ridge? We will see!!
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#598 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:36 am

180 hours.

More west.

Image
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#599 Postby ColinDelia » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:43 am

cycloneye wrote:180 hours.


180 hours. This is my stop (lol)
Last edited by ColinDelia on Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerging West Africa (Models develop it)

#600 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:43 am

out to sea..one behind it could do something....

Image
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