Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[HURAKAN]

Like I said before, I will get excited when the 1st advisory is written

[Frank2]

This one will probably recurve Frank2, but the one behind it probably won't....

True - but the second one might be too low (LOL)!!!

Kidding - the second wave does seem to be more likely to not recurve, at least early on...

Frank

[cycloneye]

According to the NRL Navy test PGI-30L for this wave, the position is 14.2N-15.5W.



Put mouse over pic at link below and you will get the position.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/ ... m&PROD=vis

[KWT]

Whilst I might be wrong seems quite obvious there is at least some sort of circulation to the north of that location but then again I've not seen the loop so we will see...

14N is probably high enough with the troughy set-up aloft for it to be a big threat but we will see...the CMC obviously throws some doubt out there.

[Blown Away]

Nice circulation envelope on the WV.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

That loop shows the way this system has plused up and then down with the Durinal cycles.

Also note the ITCZ is fairly decent at the moment, maybe thats what the ECM is picking up on its last few runs with a system trying to develop to the west.

[cycloneye]

Observations from Dakar, Senegal. Plenty of thunder with some wind direction shifts if there is wind as are very light but nothing to open eyes.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/SN_cc.html

Code: Select all

 
 Time
EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2 light rain with thunder
 10 AM (14) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2 light rain with thunder
 9 AM (13) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) Calm light rain with thunder
 8 AM (12) Aug 16 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) N 3 light rain with thunder
 7 AM (11) Aug 16 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) NW 7 rain with thunder


[cycloneye]

Here we go with another GFS run developing this system.

[cycloneye]

84 hours.

[cycloneye]

102 hours.

[cycloneye]

126 hours.

[canes04]

Luis,

I'm still trying to understand how this system plows through the strong high to it's north.
I guess there will be a weakness down the road.

Let's see how it plays out.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

I'm still trying to understand how this system plows through the strong high to it's north.
I guess there will be a weakness down the road.

Let's see how it plays out.

Agree. However,the consistency by GFS is remarkable and it has to be taken in consideration as it sees something that we dont.

[KWT]

GFS looks a little SW of the previous run but not by a huge amount really. If this was down at 12N by 120hrs then I'd be more worried but the troughing should be enough given how far north it is to recurve.

[cycloneye]

144 hours.

[cycloneye]

168 hours.

More west.

[Blown Away]

That 168 hour position looks like it may get stuck under the ridge? We will see!!

[cycloneye]

180 hours.

More west.

[ColinDelia]

180 hours.

180 hours. This is my stop (lol)

[Wx_Warrior]

out to sea..one behind it could do something....