
Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)
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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
I am going to be bold and say it will be invest 95L sometime tommorow.


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Hmmm its a little light in terms of convection but given its location thats to be expected. Looking pretty decent it has to be said, probably will be 95L at some point in the next few days.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
18z GFS running.
48 hours.

48 hours.

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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
72 hours.


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The GFS is a touch weaker this run but not by alot...
What is very interesting is the GFS and other models seem to focus in on an area down at 14-15N in the next 24hrs so that needs to be watched, clearly a broad circulation already present.
Of course if it established further north or east, the slim chances of this not recurving pretty much melt to nothing...
What is very interesting is the GFS and other models seem to focus in on an area down at 14-15N in the next 24hrs so that needs to be watched, clearly a broad circulation already present.
Of course if it established further north or east, the slim chances of this not recurving pretty much melt to nothing...
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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
96 hours.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
120 hours.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
138 hours.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
156 hours.


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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
180 hours.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
Long range.
Bermuda under a powerful hurricane.

Bermuda under a powerful hurricane.

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Yep also shear from this ones outflows stunts the other system, amazing to see how different the ECM and the GFS are with the 2nd waves evolution, they are broadly similar with the first though to be fair.
Bermuda gets hit probably by a system not too much weaker then Fabian...
Bermuda gets hit probably by a system not too much weaker then Fabian...
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- Riptide
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
It is interesting that the long-range GFS is showing a upper-level pattern favorable for a NE or Canadian Maritime TC landfall with a large high positioned in the Northern Atlantic and Northeastern Canada.
No reason to stop tracking this one, in my opinion. Interesting and exciting times ahead.
No reason to stop tracking this one, in my opinion. Interesting and exciting times ahead.

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A pretty mental end to the run, the GFS sends this one back WSW into the subtropics and gets down to about 35N after making it to 40N...very unusual and I think the GFS long range is WAY overkeen again on troughing, a system to do that would be nearly unheard of in even very strong troughing years at this time of the year.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
Riptide wrote:It is interesting that the long-range GFS is showing a upper-level pattern favorable for a NE or Canadian Maritime TC landfall with a large high positioned in the Northern Atlantic and Northeastern Canada.
No reason to stop tracking this one, in my opinion. Interesting and exciting times ahead.
Yeah, the 18z GFS has the storm coming perilously close to New England in the long range. All depends on the timing of the 2nd trough and whether a high builds in over eastern Canada.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
Wow,it makes a big loop after Bermuda.Take a look at the loop.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
I think we're going to have to watch that high in eastern Canada and see if it grows stronger. The Euro, although shows a clear recurve, builds the eastern Canadian high. If the timing is right, it could lead to a storm impacting Bermuda and possibly parts of eastern Canada at least.
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- Aquawind
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
cycloneye wrote:Wow,it makes a big loop after Bermuda.Take a look at the loop.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Wow is right..Serious ACE numbers there!
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Re: Wave PGI-30L emerges West Africa (Models develop it)
Yeah, I noticed that the big high over eastern Canada at around 10-12 days was totally absent in the last GFS run, but showed up in the 12Z ECMWF run.
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