Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

I am going to be bold and say it will be invest 95L sometime tommorow.

[KWT]

Hmmm its a little light in terms of convection but given its location thats to be expected. Looking pretty decent it has to be said, probably will be 95L at some point in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS running.

48 hours.

[cycloneye]

72 hours.

[KWT]

The GFS is a touch weaker this run but not by alot...

What is very interesting is the GFS and other models seem to focus in on an area down at 14-15N in the next 24hrs so that needs to be watched, clearly a broad circulation already present.

Of course if it established further north or east, the slim chances of this not recurving pretty much melt to nothing...

[cycloneye]

96 hours.

[cycloneye]

120 hours.

[cycloneye]

138 hours.

[cycloneye]

156 hours.

[cycloneye]

180 hours.

[cycloneye]

Long range.

Bermuda under a powerful hurricane.

[KWT]

Yep also shear from this ones outflows stunts the other system, amazing to see how different the ECM and the GFS are with the 2nd waves evolution, they are broadly similar with the first though to be fair.

Bermuda gets hit probably by a system not too much weaker then Fabian...

[Riptide]

It is interesting that the long-range GFS is showing a upper-level pattern favorable for a NE or Canadian Maritime TC landfall with a large high positioned in the Northern Atlantic and Northeastern Canada.

No reason to stop tracking this one, in my opinion. Interesting and exciting times ahead.

[KWT]

A pretty mental end to the run, the GFS sends this one back WSW into the subtropics and gets down to about 35N after making it to 40N...very unusual and I think the GFS long range is WAY overkeen again on troughing, a system to do that would be nearly unheard of in even very strong troughing years at this time of the year.

[BigA]

It is interesting that the long-range GFS is showing a upper-level pattern favorable for a NE or Canadian Maritime TC landfall with a large high positioned in the Northern Atlantic and Northeastern Canada.

No reason to stop tracking this one, in my opinion. Interesting and exciting times ahead.

Yeah, the 18z GFS has the storm coming perilously close to New England in the long range. All depends on the timing of the 2nd trough and whether a high builds in over eastern Canada.

[cycloneye]

Wow,it makes a big loop after Bermuda.Take a look at the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hurricaneCW]

I think we're going to have to watch that high in eastern Canada and see if it grows stronger. The Euro, although shows a clear recurve, builds the eastern Canadian high. If the timing is right, it could lead to a storm impacting Bermuda and possibly parts of eastern Canada at least.

[Aquawind]

Wow,it makes a big loop after Bermuda.Take a look at the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Wow is right..Serious ACE numbers there!

[Vortex]

This run sugggests a potential change in the longer range wave pattern...If the trend continues I think the GFS will continue to shift west...

[BigA]

Yeah, I noticed that the big high over eastern Canada at around 10-12 days was totally absent in the last GFS run, but showed up in the 12Z ECMWF run.