KWT wrote:Great post Aric, that makes sense to me as well and its what I've been thinking...
Interestingly though interaction maybe key for the track as well...this is because the GFS takes this quickly enough to the west to stay under the upper high right through to about 60W and because of that when it does start to lift out it doesn't get totally recurved. The ECM does the same thing but is a good deal further east and thus is only a threat to Bermuda...
That 24-36hrs of extra westward motion the GFS has makes quite a large difference!
It is well observed that all the models develop cape verde systems to quickly. This is due mostly because there is so much interaction between multiple waves and the ITCZ is a huge time factor since it typically inhibits the SW quadrant inflow. So I typically adjust development timing back 24 hours for cape Verde systems do to the interactions. remember how long the leading wave with Chris sat there for nearly 2 full days before the next much larger wave started to pass to the north and then the circulation begin to form essentially in the middle between the two. well a typical scenario will take place here except that the flow seems to be a little faster than when chris was trying to form.
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