Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

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Aric Dunn
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#841 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:53 pm

KWT wrote:Great post Aric, that makes sense to me as well and its what I've been thinking...

Interestingly though interaction maybe key for the track as well...this is because the GFS takes this quickly enough to the west to stay under the upper high right through to about 60W and because of that when it does start to lift out it doesn't get totally recurved. The ECM does the same thing but is a good deal further east and thus is only a threat to Bermuda...

That 24-36hrs of extra westward motion the GFS has makes quite a large difference!


It is well observed that all the models develop cape verde systems to quickly. This is due mostly because there is so much interaction between multiple waves and the ITCZ is a huge time factor since it typically inhibits the SW quadrant inflow. So I typically adjust development timing back 24 hours for cape Verde systems do to the interactions. remember how long the leading wave with Chris sat there for nearly 2 full days before the next much larger wave started to pass to the north and then the circulation begin to form essentially in the middle between the two. well a typical scenario will take place here except that the flow seems to be a little faster than when chris was trying to form.
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Re: Wave PGI-30L in Eastern Atlantic (Models develop it)

#842 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:58 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Well Aric, that is as close as I can get it with these maps when there is a 24 hour spread. In the maps above it is 12 hours apart and gives the the idea of the weaker trough.


well ok then.. lol no worries.. there is at least one thing to mention about it though the 12z is slower than the 00z since the 240 hour positions are in about the same spot but 12 hours slower.. :)
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#843 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:00 pm

Well,I fixed the title of thread to include PGI-31L as the models merge 30 and 31.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#844 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:04 pm

Good point Aric...This is probably getting too far into specifics but I thought I would post the 216-240 hour movement from last night's run and then the 216-240 hour movement of today's run...shows the WNW motion today compared to the NW motion last night between those hours. It is a trend the GFS has been showing as well

Last night's 216-240 movement

Image

Image

Today's 216-240 movement

Image

Image

Just shows how much influence a weaker trough has on the angle of curvature
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#845 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:21 pm

Good sat pics and loops from that area.


http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

That's the full rez, shift click to zoom in.
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#846 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:37 pm

1 hour till 18z gfs rolls in... :D
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#847 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:40 pm

What I want to see is official invest 95L up to then begin to get the runs from GFDL, HWRF and the BAMS.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#848 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:What I want to see is official invest 95L up to then begin to get the runs from GFDL, HWRF and the BAMS.


well GFDL would be similar to GFS in track with a slight right bias.. as usual...lol
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#849 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:06 pm

Haha yeah Aric you can tell what the GFDL will do without even needing to see it!

Probably still a good 24-36hrs from being invested but then again they did invest a system that looked similar to this one before Colin developed.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#850 Postby cperez1594 » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:30 pm

Check this out. This is from South Texas. A local weather man talking about it already. Jeez

Long range look points to possible Atlantic Storm

RGV -- The future looks almost certain for further tropical storm development moving through the western Atlantic by early next week.

Several, reliable, long range forecast models all point to another storm "seed" coming off the west coast of Africa by the end of this week; then that seed should sprout into a tropical depression or storm by early next week as it cruises west.

The forecast for track and strength remains iffy but the evidence is pointing to some sort of significant development by the weekend.

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#851 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:33 pm

well it looks like the 12Z ECMWF has shifted west some as well. The westward shifts continue by the globals and we are still out 240+ hours so who knows there may be more.
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#852 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:35 pm

Yes, the uncertainty of this is quite large. We might be looking at a harmless tropical storm or less that doesn't effect anyone, or a devastating hurricane slamming into the USA.

We just don't know....
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#853 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:41 pm

I'd still put odds of this recurving pretty high, perhaps as high as 80% but that is down from what I thought 24-36hrs ago....however its still got to walk a tightrope if this isn't to recurve...if it were to make it far enough west no reason why it couldn't be a powerful systems, numerous such systems have developed in La Nina years, look at 1955 for a prime example, as well as systems such as Bonnie 98 and Floyd 99.
Last edited by KWT on Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#854 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:41 pm

18z GFS Rolling

12 hours

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#855 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:42 pm

24 hours

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#856 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:43 pm

Here we go...... :lol: :lol:
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#857 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:50 pm

Not excited about 18z GFS...I will note that that 2nd storm behind that monster EURO has looks to be trouble for Carib.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#858 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:52 pm

42 hours

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#859 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:59 pm

54 hours

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic (Models merge to develop)

#860 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 17, 2010 5:05 pm

66 HOURS

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