Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

ECM doesn't get past 55W on this run...still makes a hurricane out it as well FWIW...and does show a little something heading for the Caribbean...

[xironman]

The Euro is showing the same sort of set up with a low hanging off the East Coast for a while as the CMC, just a bit north.

[floridasun78]

it too early to call area a fish like some of you saying

[BigA]

The area around 11-12 north, 30-33 west looks like it might be starting to consolidate. I don't think this is the piece of energy that the models are developing, though.

[cycloneye]

The area around 11-12 north, 30-33 west looks like it might be starting to consolidate. I don't think this is the piece of energy that the models are developing, though.

Is looking suspisious.

[KWT]

A little weak on the convection side of things though considering how deep in the tropics it is but that area is well worth just in case, though I suspect thats the front runner the ECM tried to get going on a few of the runs its made in the last 5-7 days or so.

[cycloneye]

Something has to happen from all of this.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm assuming it will, that's a strong wave moving off the coast. Then again we had tons of convection back when 93L formed, although conditions were less favorable than they are now.

[Blown Away]

Originally wasn't this low supposed to be at or above 15N coming off Africa? The TAFB 72 hour position for our low looks to be around 12N? Are the models initializing near the 10N area or closer to 15N? It may make a difference in the long run?

[alan1961]

Something has to happen from all of this.

Expect development too start in the next 12 hours over or just SW
of the CV islands...the blob in front should help too moisten the path.

[Ivanhater]

Could you imagine if nothing forms from this with all the model support

Still not seeing a consolidated area so model positioning and track is uncertain, but if anything forms above 15 north it will likely feel the weakness before the Islands...but if further south it may have a chance to sneak under.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is way south this time:

[cycloneye]

But so far weaker.Lets see how strong it gets.

[gatorcane]

But so far weaker.Lets see how strong it gets.

The ridge poofs at 108 hours...headed WNW...gaining lattitude already

[Vortex]

I think this may form from the area cycloneye pointed out..

[cycloneye]

I smell fish,same as 12z.

[gatorcane]

trough deepening and swooping in from off the Eastern CONUS to possibly deflect it away:

[KWT]

Moving WNW/NW already by 120hrs and out into the first stages of a recurve, the GFS looks identical to the ECM but a little quicker once again.

It doesn't matter how deep this one develops, when you've got a troughing profile like that, its going to recurve...it could have started down at 8-9N and still recurve before 70W in that type of set-up...

[cycloneye]

That is a big trough for August standards.

[gatorcane]

what's up with all of the weak ridging out there in the Atlantic this year?