Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

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KWT
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#1021 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:02 pm

ECM doesn't get past 55W on this run...still makes a hurricane out it as well FWIW...and does show a little something heading for the Caribbean...
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1022 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:09 pm

The Euro is showing the same sort of set up with a low hanging off the East Coast for a while as the CMC, just a bit north.

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1023 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:29 pm

it too early to call area a fish like some of you saying
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1024 Postby BigA » Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:26 pm

The area around 11-12 north, 30-33 west looks like it might be starting to consolidate. I don't think this is the piece of energy that the models are developing, though.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1025 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:50 pm

BigA wrote:The area around 11-12 north, 30-33 west looks like it might be starting to consolidate. I don't think this is the piece of energy that the models are developing, though.


Image

Is looking suspisious.
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#1026 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:01 pm

A little weak on the convection side of things though considering how deep in the tropics it is but that area is well worth just in case, though I suspect thats the front runner the ECM tried to get going on a few of the runs its made in the last 5-7 days or so.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1027 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:42 pm

Something has to happen from all of this.

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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1028 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:44 pm

I'm assuming it will, that's a strong wave moving off the coast. Then again we had tons of convection back when 93L formed, although conditions were less favorable than they are now.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1029 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:52 pm

Originally wasn't this low supposed to be at or above 15N coming off Africa? The TAFB 72 hour position for our low looks to be around 12N? Are the models initializing near the 10N area or closer to 15N? It may make a difference in the long run?
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1030 Postby alan1961 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:Something has to happen from all of this.

Image


Expect development too start in the next 12 hours over or just SW
of the CV islands...the blob in front should help too moisten the path.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1031 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:07 pm

Could you imagine if nothing forms from this with all the model support :double:

Still not seeing a consolidated area so model positioning and track is uncertain, but if anything forms above 15 north it will likely feel the weakness before the Islands...but if further south it may have a chance to sneak under.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1032 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:09 pm

18Z GFS is way south this time:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1033 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:11 pm

But so far weaker.Lets see how strong it gets.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1034 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:But so far weaker.Lets see how strong it gets.


The ridge poofs at 108 hours...headed WNW...gaining lattitude already
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#1035 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:16 pm

I think this may form from the area cycloneye pointed out..
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1036 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:17 pm

I smell fish,same as 12z.

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#1037 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:17 pm

trough deepening and swooping in from off the Eastern CONUS to possibly deflect it away:

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#1038 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:19 pm

Moving WNW/NW already by 120hrs and out into the first stages of a recurve, the GFS looks identical to the ECM but a little quicker once again.

It doesn't matter how deep this one develops, when you've got a troughing profile like that, its going to recurve...it could have started down at 8-9N and still recurve before 70W in that type of set-up...
Last edited by KWT on Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waves 30L/ 31L in Eastern Atlantic

#1039 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:20 pm

That is a big trough for August standards.
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#1040 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:20 pm

what's up with all of the weak ridging out there in the Atlantic this year?
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