ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
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ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion
Here we go. We start at square one.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB
Long thread of all the discussions about this system at Talking Tropics Forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108962&hilit=&start=0
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB
Long thread of all the discussions about this system at Talking Tropics Forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108962&hilit=&start=0
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Finally.
Now it's a matter of waiting on the models for this. However, watching the progression of the troughs across Canada this year, I have to admit I expect this one to go fish. Should be very interesting to watch the development though.
The pattern across Canada has been resembling a late fall/winter pattern for more than a week now, and I while i do anticipate a change, I think that the next trough coming through (next wek) is going to be strong enough to pick this one up and carry it north.
I've been known to be wrong however...
Now it's a matter of waiting on the models for this. However, watching the progression of the troughs across Canada this year, I have to admit I expect this one to go fish. Should be very interesting to watch the development though.
The pattern across Canada has been resembling a late fall/winter pattern for more than a week now, and I while i do anticipate a change, I think that the next trough coming through (next wek) is going to be strong enough to pick this one up and carry it north.
I've been known to be wrong however...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
I'd give this one a 100% chance of developing (beyond 48 hrs) now. It's about as sure a thing as we ever see out there. Still looks most likely to be a fish, but I don't trust the long-range models' forecast out there as far as the strength of the ridge to the north.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
After days of model watching, debate, and merged threads we finally have an Invest. I suspect we may see some screensaver images in the days ahead...
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well I will say one thing about the models.. at least the 00z and 06z gfs... it had better not miss the weakness because it builds in a very substantial ridge extending across the atlantic now rather than a series of troughs.. and im going to disregard the EURO at the 00z.. it developing a couple spurious lows that dont look realistic
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Aric,
I noticed that as well. Also it's at 11n and moving slowly west.
I'm still not sold on the recurve. If it was Sept 20 I would buy it.
One thing for sure, this has great potential!
I noticed that as well. Also it's at 11n and moving slowly west.
I'm still not sold on the recurve. If it was Sept 20 I would buy it.
One thing for sure, this has great potential!
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well thats going to be interesting.. the area farther east i was talking about yesterday has quite a decent circ developing as well ... looks like we are going to get some rotating around each other.. maybe the NOGAPS was on to something with the crazy merging..
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Perhaps if the system moves slower than models suggest, than it might have a chance to miss the weakness but odds are very slim at this point. Looks like a nice storm will be developing finally though. Strong chance at a major.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
close up visible..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
12z Best Track
AL, 95, 2010082012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 260W, 25, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
Strait westward.
AL, 95, 2010082012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 260W, 25, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
Strait westward.
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Re:
x-y-no wrote:The wave behind it has some mid-level spin and is close enough for significant interaction. I think that will help keep this tracking more due west for the next day or two. But when this gets organized, its outflow will shred the trailing wave in short order.
yeah it will have a effect on it for sure .... and its quite a bit smaller so should eventually be absorbed... also surface obs indicate that there is a surface reflection associated with it ...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION
Aric,
What is the link for where I can find this "movie"?
Thanks
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