ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go. We start at square one.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB

Long thread of all the discussions about this system at Talking Tropics Forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108962&hilit=&start=0

[Stormhunter27]

Finally.

Now it's a matter of waiting on the models for this. However, watching the progression of the troughs across Canada this year, I have to admit I expect this one to go fish. Should be very interesting to watch the development though.

The pattern across Canada has been resembling a late fall/winter pattern for more than a week now, and I while i do anticipate a change, I think that the next trough coming through (next wek) is going to be strong enough to pick this one up and carry it north.

I've been known to be wrong however...

[ColinDelia]

I feel like 95L just got a lottery ticket after standing in line for a week. Not let's see if the ticket pays.

[ColinDelia]

Wow, 40% now.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ColinDelia]

Vorticity in the top map.

[wxman57]

I'd give this one a 100% chance of developing (beyond 48 hrs) now. It's about as sure a thing as we ever see out there. Still looks most likely to be a fish, but I don't trust the long-range models' forecast out there as far as the strength of the ridge to the north.

[ColinDelia]

I know it hasn't formed yet and assume it will .. but it's been really cool watching the models improve at tropical cyclogenesis over the years. Still a long ways to go but they've also come a long way.

[srainhoutx]

After days of model watching, debate, and merged threads we finally have an Invest. I suspect we may see some screensaver images in the days ahead...

[Aric Dunn]

So this means I dont have to read a bunch of posts on the models now yay !!! lol

[Aric Dunn]

well I will say one thing about the models.. at least the 00z and 06z gfs... it had better not miss the weakness because it builds in a very substantial ridge extending across the atlantic now rather than a series of troughs.. and im going to disregard the EURO at the 00z.. it developing a couple spurious lows that dont look realistic

[canes04]

Aric,

I noticed that as well. Also it's at 11n and moving slowly west.
I'm still not sold on the recurve. If it was Sept 20 I would buy it.

One thing for sure, this has great potential!

[Aric Dunn]

well thats going to be interesting.. the area farther east i was talking about yesterday has quite a decent circ developing as well ... looks like we are going to get some rotating around each other.. maybe the NOGAPS was on to something with the crazy merging..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[hurricaneCW]

Perhaps if the system moves slower than models suggest, than it might have a chance to miss the weakness but odds are very slim at this point. Looks like a nice storm will be developing finally though. Strong chance at a major.

[x-y-no]

The wave behind it has some mid-level spin and is close enough for significant interaction. I think that will help keep this tracking more due west for the next day or two. But when this gets organized, its outflow will shred the trailing wave in short order.

[Aric Dunn]

close up visible..

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010082012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 260W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Strait westward.

[Aric Dunn]

The wave behind it has some mid-level spin and is close enough for significant interaction. I think that will help keep this tracking more due west for the next day or two. But when this gets organized, its outflow will shred the trailing wave in short order.

yeah it will have a effect on it for sure .... and its quite a bit smaller so should eventually be absorbed... also surface obs indicate that there is a surface reflection associated with it ...

[Buck]

I hate to get my hopes up after this season so far... but it's looking pretty good. A long tracker should would be nice.

[ColinDelia]

close up visible..

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/9872/movie.gif

Aric,

What is the link for where I can find this "movie"?

Thanks