ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[wxman57]

I don't post as much as I used to. But I was wondering from some of the more experienced professionals, is there any way for NOAA to send there research aircraft over the CV area for detailed analysis to evaluate the formation of a storm and then determine better methods of getting better info in future to better prpeare for significant storm formations based on real data rather than just models. It just seems that there is a dead area of limited info to better decide when to designate resources for a system. I tend to think that we will see a consolidation of the disturbed weather and then when a real center can be determined then the models will be able to get a good handle.

That's exactly what they're doing out there this year. There's a project underway in two phases - August 15-31 and September 1-15. They are studying waves as they move off the coast of Africa to learn more about what causes them to develop. It's tied in with the CIMSS "PREDICT" website:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/

[wxman57]

Looks like the monsoon gyre is slowly consolidating today. One thing that caught my eye is that the formerly horizontal orientation is tilting vertically. You can see an amplifying wave on the MIMIC TPW loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

I see a couple areas of convergence, one near 11N/31W an the other rotating WNW and another near 13N/24W. Invest 95L remains focused on the western area. I do remain confident that this system is going to develop into a tropical cyclone, but these broad circulations take time to consolidate. Probably another 36-60 hrs - Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

Oh, and I notice the ECMWF is no longer taking the system into the Bahamas. That's not to say such a track is not at least possible (my coworker thinks the ridge to its north may be stronger than forecast). But it's really hard to say what the setup will be to its north 5-7 days from now. Models often don't do well over the open oceans.

Nothing significant happening today, most likely, so I'm heading out on the bike for a 4 hour ride before the 100F temp hits this afteroon.

[ColinDelia]

Current IR


Current 850 mb vorticity


Note the area of vorticity that is 50 units has expanded and now covers both rotations. This is the largest area covered by 50 units of vorticity since we've been tracking it. There are a few papers on vorticity based detection of tropical cyclogenesis and the idea in the papers is that you look at the vorticity summed over an area. The numbers are slightly different in each paper but this is a positive sign for development if it continues.

[ColinDelia]

Divergence

[cycloneye]

Good analysis there 57. Lets see how it evolves.

[cycloneye]

Looks a little bit better.

[floridasun78]

i told you all it was too early to call this 95l a fish let see how play out

[hurricaneCW]

This could be a large storm. It was a large circulation right now and is slowly organizing. All of those factors will determine what track it takes. The slower it moves and organizes, the further west it'll end up.

[AtlanticWind]

I think we will have a TD by sometime late sunday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1583

Dr Masters sold on the recurve.

[HUC]

JAMAIS LA NAISSANCE D'UN BEBE N'AURA ETE AUSSI ENTOUREE!!!!

[cycloneye]

JAMAIS LA NAISSANCE D'UN BEBE N'AURA ETE AUSSI ENTOUREE!!!!

For the majority of us who dont know the French language,what does that sentence mean?

[arkestra]

JAMAIS LA NAISSANCE D'UN BEBE N'AURA ETE AUSSI ENTOUREE!!!!

For the majority of us who dont know the French language,what does that sentence mean?

"THE BIRTH OF A BABY HAS NEVER BEEN SO MUCH SURROUNDED". Maybe not a proper English, but that's how I can translate it the best.

[Aric Dunn]

Its slowly getting there. It finally has become tilted SW to NE as I mentioned a couple days ago we would see before it developed. convection is becoming more concentrated and more circular. I imagine at 2pm we will see 60%

[srainhoutx]

Still a ways to go IMO...

[HUC]

It means that a lot of people since a lot of days, are around "mother nature "to assist the new-born of a baby closed to mama Africa, and me also! .I think that our friend gustywind could translate the sentence better that i can do.
Have a good day, cycloneye. Wait and see, all september is in front of us,and as said our great poet Aimé Césaire: "septembre accoucheuse de cyclones..." " september midwife of hurricanes"...

[HUC]

Thank's Archestra, that's the right sense. Some of our friends should learn a little french,as we in the french Carribean made a lot of efforts to understand english,and spanish, and we are also speaking the creole (Gpe,Martinica, Dominica, St Lucia, Haiti...)
) Really the carribean is a great territory...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

There is a pretty clear center now at 31 west 11 north , i think we may have a depression as early as sunday morning

[Hugo1989]

JAMAIS LA NAISSANCE D'UN BEBE N'AURA ETE AUSSI ENTOUREE!!!!

For the majority of us who dont know the French language,what does that sentence mean?

"THE BIRTH OF A BABY HAS NEVER BEEN SO MUCH SURROUNDED". Maybe not a proper English, but that's how I can translate it the best.

Esta pagina se esta volviendo una internacional. En fin, regresando a lo importante, cualquier sistema en el este del Atlantico a mediados de agosto y con las condiciones en el area como estan, no se le puede llamar "fish" independientemente las caracteristicas que este presente. Cualquier cosa que salga de Africa es buen candidato a desarrollo en cualquier momento.

[Aric Dunn]

The northern part that is thinning out should eventually weaken and allow the inflow to develop on the NE side of the clearly much more well defined CIRC at about 11N..But all in all it has improved a lot since last night and still looking about late sunday to early monday on upgrade..