ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#221 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:40 pm

Looks to be pretty certain to recurve in the open atlantic - good thing with a major hurricane likely. Still some uncertainty with the 12Z Euro ensemble spliting the energy south of Bermuda with a piece moving off SW. Strong ridging is forecast by most of the models after this trough lifts out with a postive NAO pattern setting up.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html
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#222 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:45 pm

Good job there is nothing progged to come out of Africa after the 2nd possible weak system comes out and recurves...

Anyway the 18z GFS coming out now, lets see if there are any changes...don't think so but we will see!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#223 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:54 pm

through 24 hrs the GFS has moved this very little
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#224 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:56 pm

GFS out to 36hrs and moving a fairly slow WNW, still looks a little elongated as well...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#225 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:05 pm

GFS, Euro, and CMC all agree on twins again :D

Image

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#226 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:13 pm

90 hours

[img]Image[/img]
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#227 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:13 pm

nm
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#228 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:24 pm

GFS heading NW by 132hrs, towards the upper weakness that is probably going to scoot it out to sea.

Will be interesting to see if the twins come off, no reason why they can't.
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#229 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:28 pm

It will be awesome if we have twins to track....Yea, both more than likely fish, but still pretty cool to see all the updates and development from each storm....

Plus, it means that we might get our 5th storm before August ends...
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#230 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:30 pm

GFS is a lot closer to not recurving it this run on the 18z, but we will see!
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Re:

#231 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:31 pm

KWT wrote:GFS is a lot closer to not recurving it this run on the 18z, but we will see!


It will certainly recurve this run.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#232 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:35 pm

168 hours. Reaches 60W.

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#233 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:37 pm

I wouldn't be so certain.. lol watch out bermuda..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#234 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:39 pm

180 hours. West of 60W.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#235 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:39 pm

Well the trough itself doesn't get it, but does create that weakness that a strong system would get through. But....

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#236 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:40 pm

Yeah its real close to not recurving on this run, if it stayed further south then expected that may well get dragged further west...I doubt a threat to the east coast but Bermuda would be at risk for sure IMO.
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#237 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:43 pm

That is mighty close the NE us coast.. I smell a shift coming..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#238 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:44 pm

Hello Newfoundland!!

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#239 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:44 pm

This is further west than some of the prior runs....if that high builds in quicker or even the trof is weaker this could easily go more west...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#240 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 5:45 pm

Not only does it miss the first trough, but the second on this run....if we see any kind of slow or more west movement in the short term, then we have a big shift in the longer range...
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