ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
Looks to be pretty certain to recurve in the open atlantic - good thing with a major hurricane likely. Still some uncertainty with the 12Z Euro ensemble spliting the energy south of Bermuda with a piece moving off SW. Strong ridging is forecast by most of the models after this trough lifts out with a postive NAO pattern setting up.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP_loop.html
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Good job there is nothing progged to come out of Africa after the 2nd possible weak system comes out and recurves...
Anyway the 18z GFS coming out now, lets see if there are any changes...don't think so but we will see!
Anyway the 18z GFS coming out now, lets see if there are any changes...don't think so but we will see!
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
through 24 hrs the GFS has moved this very little
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GFS out to 36hrs and moving a fairly slow WNW, still looks a little elongated as well...
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
GFS, Euro, and CMC all agree on twins again





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Michael
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
nm
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GFS heading NW by 132hrs, towards the upper weakness that is probably going to scoot it out to sea.
Will be interesting to see if the twins come off, no reason why they can't.
Will be interesting to see if the twins come off, no reason why they can't.
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- ConvergenceZone
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GFS is a lot closer to not recurving it this run on the 18z, but we will see!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
168 hours. Reaches 60W.


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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
180 hours. West of 60W.


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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
Well the trough itself doesn't get it, but does create that weakness that a strong system would get through. But....


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Michael
Yeah its real close to not recurving on this run, if it stayed further south then expected that may well get dragged further west...I doubt a threat to the east coast but Bermuda would be at risk for sure IMO.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
Hello Newfoundland!!


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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
This is further west than some of the prior runs....if that high builds in quicker or even the trof is weaker this could easily go more west...
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models
Not only does it miss the first trough, but the second on this run....if we see any kind of slow or more west movement in the short term, then we have a big shift in the longer range...
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Michael
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