ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[ROCK]

not with that high overhead it wont.....lets see how fast the weakness fills....its there but not a large one...

[gatorcane]

Geez what happened to that weakness! Should end up more west on this run

[ROCK]

Geez what happened to that weakness!

Gator the trof has been overdone IMO....now the models are seeing it for what it really is...

for the record, a few days ago, IVAN sniffed this out....gudos to IVAN...

[SFLcane]

[Vortex]

there's no doubt the trend is less of a weakness so id suspect a turn North here but slower than a near stall around 23N/55W and a bend west as it get influenced by rising heights to the NW....

[ROCK]

there is your weakness but still dont think its much of one....IMO, its suspect... turns this to the NE at 120Hr...

[Vortex]

Based on the 500mb charts we shoul certainly see a bend back w beyond H+144hr...

[ROCK]

intensity plays a part with this as well....not as strong not as poleward...this run blows it up pretty good....

[Vortex]

It's going to get trapped..look at those height rises to the NW!

[SFLcane]

Looks like bermuda, new england might come into play if the trends continue.

[Vortex]

If Danielle is just 300 or so miles to the SW of the H+144 location this will be a major threat to SE coastline

[ROCK]

Vortex you are right....monster high buiilding in from the NW...

let me find that image someone posted a few days ago....

[SFLcane]

If Danielle is just 300 or so miles to the SW of the H+144 location this will be a major threat to SE coastline

The odds in my personal view are extremely small this tropical system effects the extreme southeast. If i were in bermuda i'd be watching closely.

[ROCK]

If Danielle is just 300 or so miles to the SW of the H+144 location this will be a major threat to SE coastline

agree...weaker storm might pull this off...or a slower and weaker storm...EURO will help later....

[ROCK]

love the way GFS likes to plow ridges....

[ROCK]

ho hum...let me break thru this ridge and head on out.....

I have seen enough....

[Vortex]

Btw, 12Z Nogaps just started running..nice initialization and intensity...

[KWT]

There is still enough of a trough to allow the system to come up, sure it bends from a due north heading to maybe a NNW/NW motion BUT if that happens and the system is at 30-35N its going to be just about impossible for this to be a threat away from Bermuda and Newfoundland.

[KWT]

ho hum...let me break thru this ridge and head on out.....

I have seen enough....

Remember its all *relative*...thats how these systems work, they will get attracted to any weakness and as you can see there is a thinning of the ridge at 65-70W which is enough for a hurricane at that sort of latitude to feel and lift out and recurve into.

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah I don't think it's going to make a difference if the storm is too far north to begin with, if it stays south of 30N when the ridge builds, than maybe, but not any further north. I'm very confident that this will be a fish spinner, there's no doubt in my mind. I think the models will trend east today starting with the latest gfs.