ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#801 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:15 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:IMO, a recurve is as certain as that center reformation that many were pegging this morning.


there was no center reformation...


Thats my way of saying "its not certain".



aahhh ok :)
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#802 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I see we you are all back to the this certainty talk again.. it is still up in the air whats going to happen... 50/50 at best


Curious, how did you get to 50/50? Not much to support anything but a fish/recurve?
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#803 Postby blp » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:19 pm

Is it me or does Danielle look like she is going to blow right by the 23/0600Z forecast point. My thinking she is quite close. If that is the case she is moving faster than predicted by several hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html
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Re: Re:

#804 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:22 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see we you are all back to the this certainty talk again.. it is still up in the air whats going to happen... 50/50 at best


Curious, how did you get to 50/50? Not much to support anything but a fish/recurve?


Agreed for a USA hit from the midatlantic south to Florida it's like 5 to 95 at this point of a hit with a less than 5% chance of a hit
Not happening aric!
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#805 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:22 pm

Blown Away, you beat me to the punch.
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Re: Re:

#806 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:23 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I see we you are all back to the this certainty talk again.. it is still up in the air whats going to happen... 50/50 at best


Curious, how did you get to 50/50? Not much to support anything but a fish/recurve?

well besides models .. what do you have to support re curve?.. I can give quite a few possibilities for both scenarios..
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#807 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:26 pm

The models see things that we cannot see at this moment. As they all show a deflection from the us they are likely not to be all wrong unless Danielle opens back up into a wave
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#808 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:27 pm

I want an analysis of different down stream progressions that could lead to a re-curve and you must base what you say off of current surface analysis and trends with the trough and current sub tropical ridge.. no models..
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#809 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:27 pm

ASCAT missed to the west, but 35kt winds found:

Image
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Re:

#810 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:The models see things that we cannot see at this moment. As they all show a deflection from the us they are likely not to be all wrong unless Danielle opens back up into a wave

I have seen it many many many times that the models are wrong ... especially more than 3 days out... actually more time than not models are incorrect and thus far with track they have been doing very poorly with this system..
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Re:

#811 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:The models see things that we cannot see at this moment. As they all show a deflection from the us they are likely not to be all wrong unless Danielle opens back up into a wave

The models had an average track error of about 100 miles last year at 48 hours. The errors go up with greater length of time expodentially. You just can't take a five day model projection to the bank and model agreement does not mean model accuracy at the long term.
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#812 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:33 pm

well in the mean time while I wait for everyone's analysis... the could patterns with Danielle are hinting that the center is farther under the convection than earlier and that its closer to the increasingly vigorous MLC.. hopefully we get a good microwave pass soon..
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#813 Postby Buck » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:34 pm

It's way too early to be talking like some people are about hits and misses. We have no idea. Models are tools for guidance, not fortune-tellers.

But anyway, the IR loops are so impressive! These cold tops just won't quite! Intense!
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#814 Postby Buck » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:39 pm

11pm - 50mph, 1000mbs
Last edited by Buck on Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#815 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:39 pm

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. DANIELLE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#816 Postby blp » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:40 pm

Guys I think we need to let the pro met's chime in before we start making definitive comments about recurve or landfall threats. I notice that not one of the pro's has made a call on this one which leads me to believe that things downstream are not yet as clear cut to make certain determinations. We will have plenty of more model runs to sort this out. Let's sit back and enjoy the show because it has been a while since we have had anything decent to track.
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Re:

#817 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:43 pm

Buck wrote:It's way too early to be talking like some people are about hits and misses. We have no idea. Models are tools for guidance, not fortune-tellers.

But anyway, the IR loops are so impressive! These cold tops just won't quite! Intense!


Don't think it is too early at all. Models simply will not miss so bad that suddenly they show Florida as a target at this point. The synoptic setup is pretty clear - a shortwave rolls off the eastern conus in a few days from now that puts a big dent in the western Atlantic ridge. That causes Danielle to curve nw. Every model shows this solution with some small deviations between models.
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Re: Re:

#818 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Buck wrote:It's way too early to be talking like some people are about hits and misses. We have no idea. Models are tools for guidance, not fortune-tellers.

But anyway, the IR loops are so impressive! These cold tops just won't quite! Intense!


Don't think it is too early at all. Models simply will not miss so bad that suddenly they show Florida as a target at this point. The synoptic setup is pretty clear - a shortwave rolls off the eastern conus in a few days from now that puts a big dent in the western Atlantic ridge. That causes Danielle to curve nw. Every model shows this solution with some small deviations between models.


Im glad your better at forecasting that far out than all the NHC..
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#819 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:47 pm

Image
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#820 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:48 pm

There is the subtle hook to the right. Headed away from the conus....
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