ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Brent]

Is not yet D-MAX and this is how it looks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Wow is all I can say.

Isn't this a nice change from TD 2, Bonnie, Colin, and TD 5?!

[thetruesms]

Based on the satellite presentation, I think Danielle is undergoing rapid intensification. I think we could see Hurricane Danielle by tomorrow. I notice rapid intensification happens at night. Opal, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Ike underwent rapid intensification at night.

Let's not get too excited here - the center is still towards the eastern edge of that convective burst, Danielle's still getting her legs under her. Heat content would seem to be a little low, and shear is probably too high at this point as well for RI. I think some garden-variety strengthening will do for now.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's not get too excited here - the center is still towards the eastern edge of that convective burst, Danielle's still getting her legs under her. Heat content would seem to be a little low, and shear is probably too high at this point as well for RI. I think some garden-variety strengthening will do for now.

I am not overtly excited. I just think it looks better than other storms I have seen this year.

[thetruesms]

I am not overtly excited. I just think it looks better than other storms I have seen this year.

I will definitely give you that for the Atlantic this year

[bob rulz]

Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet.

[Ptarmigan]

I will definitely give you that for the Atlantic this year

Fair enough. The cloud tops are very cold. It does have to deal with shear and dry air.

[thetruesms]

Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet.

Busted

Although Alex wasn't particularly attractive either until the very end, with its frequent dry air moats. I do hope that Danielle will be prettier when her opportunity comes.

[bob rulz]

Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet.

Busted

Although Alex wasn't particularly attractive either until the very end, with its frequent dry air moats. I do hope that Danielle will be prettier when her opportunity comes.

That's a fair point, although in the moments prior to landfall it was definitely the best-looking cat 2 I've ever seen.

I do expect Danielle to shatter Alex's seasonal highs though. Long-tracking Cape Verde storms such as this in late August and September usually reach cat 3 or 4 intensity.

[dixiebreeze]

Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Alex only had 6.7825 ACE units. I expect Danielle to get between 25-30 units to have the Atlantic get closer to the EPAC that has sprinted so far in the ACE department.

[SeminoleWind]

Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble

[dixiebreeze]

Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble

Might be a bit more than a wobble.

[Cyclenall]

Not surprised to see people discussing track more than the strength for this even though long before this formed I knew this had no chance at a US direct hit. Why is there even a debate?

I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

Just yesterday?

[jaxfladude]

So, will Danielle be the biggest and strongest system for this season?
Hopefully she misses any and all landmass/islands.

[blp]

I have been looking at that for a few hours now. It seems that way although IR can be deceiving but it certainly looks like it is going to miss the next point. Also it seems to be moving faster as well. I think the ridge is firmly establishing itself over the system now.

Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble

Might be a bit more than a wobble.

[Air Force Met]

Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble

Might be a bit more than a wobble.

Ha! Vindicated. I predicted this afternoon that those lamenting the wobble to the north and the fact it was north of the forecast track would just have to wait a little while...and then we could talk about a wobble to the west and it being south of the forecast track.

And when you average the north wobble with the south wobble...its still right on course.

And for the record...here was the post at 3:04 PM this afternoon:
"Prediction: They will re-adjust the track to the right due to the wobble...but have it going in the same direction...and then it will wobble to the left....and then there will be post upon post about how its moving to the left of the forecast track."

[cycloneye]

So, will Danielle be the biggest and strongest system for this season?
Hopefully she misses any and all landmass/islands.

If it gets the ideal enviromental conditions, she can reach cat 4.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL.... ....SO TRUE

[bob rulz]

Well one thing's for sure...this is going to be a huge hurricane.

[Air Force Met]

Not surprised to see people discussing track more than the strength for this even though long before this formed I knew this had no chance at a US direct hit. Why is there even a debate?

I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

Just yesterday?

It was yesterday that I first posted on this system. I have been watching it...and discussing it with my met partners for the better part of a week...since the models first started developing something. All last week we discussed (we being my metoc community) the issue of this being a threat...and we all felt it was not a CONUS threat. We had a final conversation on Friday about it and felt it was not a threat.

Hence the reason I am just now talking about it. I don't feel it is a threat so it isn't going to take up a lot of my time (which is at a premium price now-a-days). If I had felt it was a threat...you would have seen me sooner.