ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#841 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is not yet D-MAX and this is how it looks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg


Wow is all I can say.

Isn't this a nice change from TD 2, Bonnie, Colin, and TD 5?!
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#842 Postby thetruesms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:59 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Based on the satellite presentation, I think Danielle is undergoing rapid intensification. I think we could see Hurricane Danielle by tomorrow. I notice rapid intensification happens at night. Opal, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Ike underwent rapid intensification at night.
Let's not get too excited here - the center is still towards the eastern edge of that convective burst, Danielle's still getting her legs under her. Heat content would seem to be a little low, and shear is probably too high at this point as well for RI. I think some garden-variety strengthening will do for now.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#843 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:03 pm

thetruesms wrote:Let's not get too excited here - the center is still towards the eastern edge of that convective burst, Danielle's still getting her legs under her. Heat content would seem to be a little low, and shear is probably too high at this point as well for RI. I think some garden-variety strengthening will do for now.


I am not overtly excited. I just think it looks better than other storms I have seen this year.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#844 Postby thetruesms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:07 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I am not overtly excited. I just think it looks better than other storms I have seen this year.
I will definitely give you that for the Atlantic this year Image
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#845 Postby bob rulz » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:08 pm

Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet. :P
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#846 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:09 pm

thetruesms wrote:I will definitely give you that for the Atlantic this year Image


Fair enough. The cloud tops are very cold. It does have to deal with shear and dry air.
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Re:

#847 Postby thetruesms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:20 pm

bob rulz wrote:Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet. :P
Busted :lol:

Although Alex wasn't particularly attractive either until the very end, with its frequent dry air moats. I do hope that Danielle will be prettier when her opportunity comes.
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Re: Re:

#848 Postby bob rulz » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:23 pm

thetruesms wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Well it doesn't look better than Alex yet. :P
Busted :lol:

Although Alex wasn't particularly attractive either until the very end, with its frequent dry air moats. I do hope that Danielle will be prettier when her opportunity comes.


That's a fair point, although in the moments prior to landfall it was definitely the best-looking cat 2 I've ever seen.

I do expect Danielle to shatter Alex's seasonal highs though. Long-tracking Cape Verde storms such as this in late August and September usually reach cat 3 or 4 intensity.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#849 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:27 pm

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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#850 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:27 pm

Alex only had 6.7825 ACE units. I expect Danielle to get between 25-30 units to have the Atlantic get closer to the EPAC that has sprinted so far in the ACE department.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#851 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:28 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html



looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#852 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:30 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html



looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble


Might be a bit more than a wobble.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#853 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:30 pm

Not surprised to see people discussing track more than the strength for this even though long before this formed I knew this had no chance at a US direct hit. Why is there even a debate? :eek:

Air Force Met wrote:I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

Just yesterday?
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#854 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:43 pm

So, will Danielle be the biggest and strongest system for this season?
Hopefully she misses any and all landmass/islands.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#855 Postby blp » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:47 pm

I have been looking at that for a few hours now. It seems that way although IR can be deceiving but it certainly looks like it is going to miss the next point. Also it seems to be moving faster as well. I think the ridge is firmly establishing itself over the system now.

dixiebreeze wrote:
SeminoleWind wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html



looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble


Might be a bit more than a wobble.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#856 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:50 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
SeminoleWind wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:Looking a bit more westerly: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html



looks to go a bit south of the forecast points also wonder if its just a short term wobble


Might be a bit more than a wobble.


Ha! Vindicated. I predicted this afternoon that those lamenting the wobble to the north and the fact it was north of the forecast track would just have to wait a little while...and then we could talk about a wobble to the west and it being south of the forecast track.

And when you average the north wobble with the south wobble...its still right on course.

And for the record...here was the post at 3:04 PM this afternoon:
"Prediction: They will re-adjust the track to the right due to the wobble...but have it going in the same direction...and then it will wobble to the left....and then there will be post upon post about how its moving to the left of the forecast track."
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Re:

#857 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:54 pm

jaxfladude wrote:So, will Danielle be the biggest and strongest system for this season?
Hopefully she misses any and all landmass/islands.


If it gets the ideal enviromental conditions, she can reach cat 4.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#858 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:55 pm

LOL.... :uarrow: ....SO TRUE
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#859 Postby bob rulz » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:58 pm

Well one thing's for sure...this is going to be a huge hurricane.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm DANIELLE - Discussion

#860 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:58 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Not surprised to see people discussing track more than the strength for this even though long before this formed I knew this had no chance at a US direct hit. Why is there even a debate? :eek:

Air Force Met wrote:I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

Just yesterday?


It was yesterday that I first posted on this system. I have been watching it...and discussing it with my met partners for the better part of a week...since the models first started developing something. All last week we discussed (we being my metoc community) the issue of this being a threat...and we all felt it was not a CONUS threat. We had a final conversation on Friday about it and felt it was not a threat.

Hence the reason I am just now talking about it. I don't feel it is a threat so it isn't going to take up a lot of my time (which is at a premium price now-a-days). If I had felt it was a threat...you would have seen me sooner.
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