ATL: EARL - Models

[Frank2]

LOL - those 384 hour models = 16 days = almost pure fiction (and 10% real fruit juice)...

As Wx Warrior said, I'll give that more time...

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO 144H

[hurricaneCW]

That would be awesome if Danielle was still here after two weeks basically circling the Atlantic. There are more dangerous threats that pop out as well, especially the Caribbean one.

[Florida1118]

That would be awesome if Danielle was still here after two weeks basically circling the Atlantic. There are more dangerous threats that pop out as well, especially the Caribbean one.

It would defiantly give our ACE a boost.

[ROCK]

12z EURO 144H

faster Dee moves out that high is going to fill in after and keep Earl westward...IMO...

[Wx_Warrior]

168H

[ROCK]

168H

man, I like it when I get something right.....

[Wx_Warrior]

96L follows older sister...and recurves

[ROCK]

96L follows older sister...and recurves

have faith my fellow EURO hugger....

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

058
WHXX01 KWBC 231854
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1854 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100823 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100823  1800   100824  0600   100824  1800   100825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.3N  17.3W   12.7N  20.0W   14.2N  23.1W   15.4N  26.5W
BAMD    11.3N  17.3W   12.6N  19.8W   14.0N  22.5W   15.5N  25.3W
BAMM    11.3N  17.3W   12.8N  20.0W   14.4N  23.1W   15.9N  26.2W
LBAR    11.3N  17.3W   12.0N  19.5W   13.3N  22.1W   14.4N  24.8W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100825  1800   100826  1800   100827  1800   100828  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  30.0W   18.0N  36.3W   19.1N  41.3W   21.0N  46.2W
BAMD    17.1N  28.0W   20.4N  33.7W   22.7N  38.5W   24.2N  41.1W
BAMM    17.3N  29.5W   19.7N  35.8W   21.2N  41.4W   22.5N  46.2W
LBAR    15.6N  27.3W   17.9N  31.9W   20.2N  35.8W   22.3N  37.2W
SHIP        57KTS          62KTS          64KTS          63KTS
DSHP        57KTS          62KTS          64KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.3N LONCUR =  17.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 =  15.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  10.9N LONM24 =  14.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[ROCK]

the high bridges momentarily but then falls apart afterwards.....if Dee is faster and scoots thru..that ridge might catch Earl.....anyway just my opinion of course....

[Stormcenter]

Faith for what the in stays west and threatens the islands and U.S.?
No way....it can stay out to sea and bother the fishes for all I care. IMO

96L follows older sister...and recurves

have faith my fellow EURO hugger....

[Dean4Storms]

Looks all fishy too me!

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the Euro, it wouldn't take much for this to miss the weakness from Danielle and continue westward.

Euro pretty much goes straight west then turns sharply into the weakness from Danielle. Only would take Danielle moving a bit faster for the weakness to close and bam, "Earl" gets trapped on a westward heading...

Lid has come off

[Ivanhater]

BTW...Danielle is already moving faster than the NHC track..so that is interesting.

[x-y-no]

Yes, that is Danielle and Earl in 16 days..they combine and loop back around...

I'm tempted to say I'd eat my socks if that happens, but I don't want to have to make a youtube video ...

[Brent]

I'm tempted to say I'd eat my socks if that happens, but I don't want to have to make a youtube video ...

[ROCK]

BTW...Danielle is already moving faster than the NHC track..so that is interesting.

yes Dee is feeling out the ridge now looking for her escape hatch...Earl might not be so lucky....more guidance is needed but I sniff a westward track and a threat....

[Aric Dunn]

Models are not very good at breaking systems from the ITCZ and the south westerly flow that can sometimes hold a developing low relatively in place. there are many instances of this and I guess the best example would be the most recent and that just happens to be Danielle..

[KWT]

Hmmmm models do suggest a recurve but actually...shock horror...I'm not totally comfortable with that idea with 96L to be honest, esp as it will likely get sheared and possibly decouple down the line from the strong outflow from Danielle down the line.

ECM gets down to 962mbs with this one so another CV hurricane looks possible!