ATL: EARL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:51 pm

I find it interesting the GFS at 12hrs has a fully developed system..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#42 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:15 pm

Yeah looks a good deal too agressive and thus probably too quick on shunting this one westwards IMO.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:27 pm

Hurricane Earl.

132 hours.

Image

150 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:33 pm

168 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#45 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:36 pm

Looks close enough on this run to probably share the same fate as Danielle but we will see!

I'm not too convinced the system handles the intial speed all that well though and therefore its going to be a very close call!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:05 pm

First run by HWRF likes Earl as a hurricane.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#47 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:10 pm

Yes it does

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#48 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:37 pm

Probably follows Danille into the same weakness on the HWRF there I reckon.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#49 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:30 pm

No, I doubt it. This system is lagging way behind Danielle. The ridge should close by then. Don't trust the models that far out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

96L, future Earl? gets trapped in this area.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#51 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

Looks like Earl is left behind this run

Image

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#52 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif


I can see Earl getting trapped here....need a few more hrs to confirm my suspicion...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#53 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:36 pm

nevermind Ivan confirmed my suspicion.... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#54 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:39 pm

Image

thats got FL to EC written all over it.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:39 pm

It blows up into a powerful cane.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1703
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

#56 Postby bob rulz » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Earl is definitely the one we need to keep an eye on in the coming weeks...
0 likes   
Top
blazess556
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 250
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:51 pm
Location: Germantown, MD

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#57 Postby blazess556 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:It blows up into a powerful cane.

Image

its traveling almost due west toward the usa with a ridge building with it and trying to bridge with the high of the us.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#58 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Completley detached from Danielles flow. Weakness filled. Not sure what that pesky low off the east coast is doing

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37988
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#59 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Well this run is interesting. :eek:

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#60 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:44 pm

snagged off the EC and out....telling though in the short /med term...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests