ATL: EARL - Models

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#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:51 pm

I find it interesting the GFS at 12hrs has a fully developed system..
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#42 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:15 pm

Yeah looks a good deal too agressive and thus probably too quick on shunting this one westwards IMO.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:27 pm

Hurricane Earl.

132 hours.

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150 hours.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:33 pm

168 hours.

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#45 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:36 pm

Looks close enough on this run to probably share the same fate as Danielle but we will see!

I'm not too convinced the system handles the intial speed all that well though and therefore its going to be a very close call!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:05 pm

First run by HWRF likes Earl as a hurricane.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#47 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:10 pm

Yes it does

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#48 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:37 pm

Probably follows Danille into the same weakness on the HWRF there I reckon.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#49 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:30 pm

No, I doubt it. This system is lagging way behind Danielle. The ridge should close by then. Don't trust the models that far out.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

96L, future Earl? gets trapped in this area.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#51 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

Looks like Earl is left behind this run

Image

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#52 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:35 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif


I can see Earl getting trapped here....need a few more hrs to confirm my suspicion...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#53 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:36 pm

nevermind Ivan confirmed my suspicion.... :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#54 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:39 pm

Image

thats got FL to EC written all over it.....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:39 pm

It blows up into a powerful cane.

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#56 Postby bob rulz » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Earl is definitely the one we need to keep an eye on in the coming weeks...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#57 Postby blazess556 » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:It blows up into a powerful cane.

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its traveling almost due west toward the usa with a ridge building with it and trying to bridge with the high of the us.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#58 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Completley detached from Danielles flow. Weakness filled. Not sure what that pesky low off the east coast is doing

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#59 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:40 pm

Well this run is interesting. :eek:

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#60 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:44 pm

snagged off the EC and out....telling though in the short /med term...
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