Threat to Azores next week?

pepeavilenho · #1 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:14 am

Maybe a ''Grace revival''....Who knows!! :eek:

Sorry about being in Spanish.... :oops:

Phase diagrams....warm-cored system...

Track consensus.

Actual situation...

The genesis is like last year with Grace..... 8-)

And the SST is around 25ºC-23ºC.

#2 Postby **ColinDelia** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:16 am

I have been thinking about Grace too. Possible.

pepeavilenho · #3 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:46 pm

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:49 pm

I'm always looking at the subtropics and I was thinking the same. We're almost in September, the time where anything is possible in the tropics!

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:50 pm

Temps would favor transition

pepeavilenho · #6 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:10 pm

Wow!! Nice anomalies Hurakan!

It's far away from the polar jet, maybe it needs more SST, I do not thin 23ºC is enough.... :roll:

I think we could have an Invest on Sunday..... 8-)

pepeavilenho · #7 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 6:47 am

Look what is going on right here guys!!

500hP

Clouds

I expect an Invest in the nest 48 hours....

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 7:23 am

keeping a close eye for possible subtropical or tropical development

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:26 am

Water up there is definitely warmer than when Grace formed. Good chance NHC might name it in a few days. Could have 4 active storms at once this weekend.

KWT · #10 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:46 am

Interesting little system for sure, can't rule this one out though clearly the low is still attached to the fronts at the moment.

Macrocane · #11 Postby **Macrocane** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 9:12 am

I love systems like Grace and Vince, would be very interesting to watch, let's wait and see.

Pedro Fernández · #12 Postby **Pedro Fernández** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:08 pm

Keeping an eye on..........! :eek:

The map with the SST anomalies along the northern Atlantic is very impressive :roll:

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:21 pm

tropical connection!

#14 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:27 pm

Notice deep convection starting to form - maybe hints of an eyewall? I'd at least call this 98L soon.

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:54 pm

If this goes right over the Azores, it also opens a path for Danielle, correct?

pepeavilenho · #16 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:34 am

I have received a mail from Jeff Masters.
I asked him about this system later today....

''Very interesting storm! The latest 12Z model runs really intensify it. I would expect the storm to start drawing energy from latent heat and developing convection near the center this weekend, but it is too far north to spend enough time over water to transition to a subtropical storm that would be named by NHC. It will get absorbed into the jet stream before that can happen.''

Wait and see..... :grr:

#17 Postby **abajan** » Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:56 am

IMO the Azores need to be more concerned with the possibility of Hurricane Danielle passing pretty close to their North in about five days time. As an extratropical system, its wind field would be quite large. Plus, if the track in the graphic below pans out, unlike Bermuda, those islands would be on the stronger side of the system. Of course, by that time Danielle is forecast to be much weaker than it presently is.

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:21 am

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 27, 2010 8:36 am

GFS

UKM

CMC

NGP

#20 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:02 am

convection trying to rotate around the center

Threat to Azores next week?

Threat to Azores next week?

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