Threat to Azores next week?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

Threat to Azores next week?

#1 Postby pepeavilenho » Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:14 am

Maybe a ''Grace revival''....Who knows!! :eek:

Sorry about being in Spanish.... :oops:

Image

Phase diagrams....warm-cored system...

ImageImage

ImageImage

Track consensus.

Image

Actual situation...

Image

The genesis is like last year with Grace..... 8-) And the SST is around 25ºC-23ºC.
0 likes   

User avatar
ColinDelia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 918
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 5:52 am
Location: The Beach, FL

#2 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:16 am

I have been thinking about Grace too. Possible.
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#3 Postby pepeavilenho » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:46 pm

Image

Image

:roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:49 pm

I'm always looking at the subtropics and I was thinking the same. We're almost in September, the time where anything is possible in the tropics!
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:50 pm

Image

Image

Temps would favor transition
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#6 Postby pepeavilenho » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:10 pm

Wow!! Nice anomalies Hurakan!

It's far away from the polar jet, maybe it needs more SST, I do not thin 23ºC is enough.... :roll:

I think we could have an Invest on Sunday..... 8-)
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#7 Postby pepeavilenho » Thu Aug 26, 2010 6:47 am

Look what is going on right here guys!!

500hP
Image
Clouds
Image

I expect an Invest in the nest 48 hours.... :flag:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 26, 2010 7:23 am

Image

keeping a close eye for possible subtropical or tropical development
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22983
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Threat to Azores next week?

#9 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:26 am

Water up there is definitely warmer than when Grace formed. Good chance NHC might name it in a few days. Could have 4 active storms at once this weekend.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:46 am

Interesting little system for sure, can't rule this one out though clearly the low is still attached to the fronts at the moment.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Threat to Azores next week?

#11 Postby Macrocane » Thu Aug 26, 2010 9:12 am

I love systems like Grace and Vince, would be very interesting to watch, let's wait and see.
0 likes   

User avatar
Pedro Fernández
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Age: 47
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2007 7:24 am
Location: Costa Tropical (Granada, Spain).
Contact:

Re: Threat to Azores next week?

#12 Postby Pedro Fernández » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:08 pm

Keeping an eye on..........! :eek: The map with the SST anomalies along the northern Atlantic is very impressive :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:21 pm

Image

tropical connection!
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:27 pm

Notice deep convection starting to form - maybe hints of an eyewall? I'd at least call this 98L soon.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 26, 2010 12:54 pm

If this goes right over the Azores, it also opens a path for Danielle, correct?
0 likes   

pepeavilenho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm

#16 Postby pepeavilenho » Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:34 am

I have received a mail from Jeff Masters.
I asked him about this system later today....

''Very interesting storm! The latest 12Z model runs really intensify it. I would expect the storm to start drawing energy from latent heat and developing convection near the center this weekend, but it is too far north to spend enough time over water to transition to a subtropical storm that would be named by NHC. It will get absorbed into the jet stream before that can happen.''


Wait and see..... :grr:
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4234
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: Threat to Azores next week?

#17 Postby abajan » Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:56 am

IMO the Azores need to be more concerned with the possibility of Hurricane Danielle passing pretty close to their North in about five days time. As an extratropical system, its wind field would be quite large. Plus, if the track in the graphic below pans out, unlike Bermuda, those islands would be on the stronger side of the system. Of course, by that time Danielle is forecast to be much weaker than it presently is.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:21 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 8:36 am

GFS
Image

UKM
Image

CMC
Image

NGP
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:02 am

Image

convection trying to rotate around the center
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jaguars_22, TheBurn and 47 guests