ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Brent]

[fig]

Boy the NHC is really counting on that sharp turn in a couple of days!

[TropicalWXMA]

Conference calls between the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and NWS began today.

Discussed Earl's impacts:

1. Poss 5"+ rain

2. Gusts to 75mph Cape/Islands

3. 40+mph Boston/Suburbs

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like he's gaining latitude as forecast. I've see a motion around 295 since this afternoon. The track is very standard is this type of situation. A storm heads west while a trough heads east. The trough tears through the ridge and the storm curves to the north and then northeast. As far as the potential landfall goes, either Earl moves faster or the trough is slower to head east or both.

The best chance at a landfall is if Earl moves faster and the trough moves slower, if that happens, and it still can, than Earl could make landfall in Eastern North Carolina/Outer Banks.

How far south it is won't make a difference in a further west track because the trough will easily erode the ridge and the storm will curve out anyway. If the trough was really weak and the storm far enough south, then it could have missed the weakness and have become trapped in weak steering currents or something like 2004's Jeanne. However this is not the case with this storm and setup.

The biggest thing will be speed. The speed of Earl v.s. the speed of the trough. A secondary matter of importance is the trough. How strong will it be, will it be more amplified, more zonal. If the trough is weaker than forecast, than the curve to the N and NE will be less sharp. If it's more amplified than it could be very sharp, which is what I think will happen.

Any landfall or close approach is still 3-4 days away and a lot can happen, but right now all we could do is continue to monitor the storm very carefully.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wouldn't take too much of a nudge west for this to be that big threat to NYC that is so feared.

-not that I believe that will be the definitive case...just sayin'

[neospaceblue]

This is terrifying. Please, can someone tell me what are the chances of Newport News getting winds of at least 60-mph?

[Ivanhater]

[RL3AO]

I'd like to remind people that the NHC forecast with the center line just connects the point, but between day 3 and 4 it would probably be a more gradual turn, as indicated by the red line here.

[anarchiver19]

From the Virginia Department of Emergency Management website:

"A small change in Earl's forecasted path could bring a major hurricane to Virginia," said Michael Cline, state coordinator for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management. "Virginia state agencies are getting ready for the storm, and so should residents."

The Commonwealth has activated the Virginia Evacuation Coordination Team for Operational Response to assess Earl’s potential impact and to take necessary actions. The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is now at Increased Readiness Condition.

http://www.vdem.state.va.us/newsroom/re ... e_earl.cfm

[BigB0882]

Is that another stair step West? Not very many frames to use for reference, though.

[blazess556]

****Unofficial**** Latest GRIP DC-8 dropsonde reported 941 mb in eye.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow

[BigB0882]

I know this is probably not many people's concern but wouldn't this be close to NYC while the U.S. Open was still going on? I know that is a long way off but if it did go West enough, that could be a huge problem with so many tourists and athletes in NYC and the surrounding areas. I wonder how they would handle that, but I suppose that is a question for another forum, haha

[msbee]

I'm NOT enjoying ts beauty
its a whole other thing when you have to live through it.


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We are all glad you made it through and even still have your internet!
If Earl had intensified into a cat 3 just a few hours earlier it would have been a disaster.
What are you hearing about winds and damage on St Maarten?
Luis is probably going out of his mind without power wondering if the storm is going to change course.

we are ok on st maarten but have a big clean up
lots of trees down and roofs off
we had approximately 90-100 mph winds with gust up to 120 mph. it was no picnic for sure
hope luis and pr and vi and bvi are doing ok

[eastcoastFL]

I seconed that wow

[BigA]

I know this is probably not many people's concern but wouldn't this be close to NYC while the U.S. Open was still going on? I know that is a long way off but if it did go West enough, that could be a huge problem with so many tourists and athletes in NYC and the surrounding areas. I wonder how they would handle that, but I suppose that is a question for another forum, haha

New York is in the cone, so the emergency management officials and other authorities should be making plans.

[storms in NC]

It will be a very close call for the coast of NC up. But if it don't make the bank to the northeast going into around Surf City. But there is too many Iffffffff'ssssss on this thing

[Ivanhater]

Not gaining much latitude recently

[BigA]

Also, let's not forget that even if Earl's worst misses the US east coast, the official forecast takes the center of a strong hurricane directly over Halifax, a city of 375,000 folks. Someone's going to get this storm, unfortunately.

[ColinDelia]

This is terrifying. Please, can someone tell me what are the chances of Newport News getting winds of at least 60-mph?

Probabilities here. You'll have to find a city as close to you as possible on this list
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2047.shtml

Norfolk, VA.

34 knots (39 mph) 23%
50 knots (58 mph) 8%
64 knots (74 mph) 3%