ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2261 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:55 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2262 Postby fig » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:56 pm

Boy the NHC is really counting on that sharp turn in a couple of days! :roll:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2263 Postby TropicalWXMA » Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:56 pm

Conference calls between the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and NWS began today.

Discussed Earl's impacts:

1. Poss 5"+ rain

2. Gusts to 75mph Cape/Islands

3. 40+mph Boston/Suburbs
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2264 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:00 pm

It looks like he's gaining latitude as forecast. I've see a motion around 295 since this afternoon. The track is very standard is this type of situation. A storm heads west while a trough heads east. The trough tears through the ridge and the storm curves to the north and then northeast. As far as the potential landfall goes, either Earl moves faster or the trough is slower to head east or both.

The best chance at a landfall is if Earl moves faster and the trough moves slower, if that happens, and it still can, than Earl could make landfall in Eastern North Carolina/Outer Banks.

How far south it is won't make a difference in a further west track because the trough will easily erode the ridge and the storm will curve out anyway. If the trough was really weak and the storm far enough south, then it could have missed the weakness and have become trapped in weak steering currents or something like 2004's Jeanne. However this is not the case with this storm and setup.

The biggest thing will be speed. The speed of Earl v.s. the speed of the trough. A secondary matter of importance is the trough. How strong will it be, will it be more amplified, more zonal. If the trough is weaker than forecast, than the curve to the N and NE will be less sharp. If it's more amplified than it could be very sharp, which is what I think will happen.

Any landfall or close approach is still 3-4 days away and a lot can happen, but right now all we could do is continue to monitor the storm very carefully.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2265 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:00 pm

Wouldn't take too much of a nudge west for this to be that big threat to NYC that is so feared.

-not that I believe that will be the definitive case...just sayin'
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#2266 Postby neospaceblue » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:01 pm

This is terrifying. Please, can someone tell me what are the chances of Newport News getting winds of at least 60-mph?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2267 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:01 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2268 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:03 pm

I'd like to remind people that the NHC forecast with the center line just connects the point, but between day 3 and 4 it would probably be a more gradual turn, as indicated by the red line here.

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2269 Postby anarchiver19 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:04 pm

From the Virginia Department of Emergency Management website:

"A small change in Earl's forecasted path could bring a major hurricane to Virginia," said Michael Cline, state coordinator for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management. "Virginia state agencies are getting ready for the storm, and so should residents."

The Commonwealth has activated the Virginia Evacuation Coordination Team for Operational Response to assess Earl’s potential impact and to take necessary actions. The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is now at Increased Readiness Condition.

http://www.vdem.state.va.us/newsroom/re ... e_earl.cfm
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#2270 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:05 pm

Is that another stair step West? Not very many frames to use for reference, though.
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#2271 Postby blazess556 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:05 pm

****Unofficial**** Latest GRIP DC-8 dropsonde reported 941 mb in eye.
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#2272 Postby Squarethecircle » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:07 pm

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Wow
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#2273 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:08 pm

I know this is probably not many people's concern but wouldn't this be close to NYC while the U.S. Open was still going on? I know that is a long way off but if it did go West enough, that could be a huge problem with so many tourists and athletes in NYC and the surrounding areas. I wonder how they would handle that, but I suppose that is a question for another forum, haha
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2274 Postby msbee » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:08 pm

Nimbus wrote:
I'm NOT enjoying ts beauty
its a whole other thing when you have to live through it.


Report this post


We are all glad you made it through and even still have your internet!
If Earl had intensified into a cat 3 just a few hours earlier it would have been a disaster.
What are you hearing about winds and damage on St Maarten?
Luis is probably going out of his mind without power wondering if the storm is going to change course.

we are ok on st maarten but have a big clean up
lots of trees down and roofs off
we had approximately 90-100 mph winds with gust up to 120 mph. it was no picnic for sure
hope luis and pr and vi and bvi are doing ok
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#2275 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:10 pm

I seconed that wow
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2276 Postby BigA » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:10 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I know this is probably not many people's concern but wouldn't this be close to NYC while the U.S. Open was still going on? I know that is a long way off but if it did go West enough, that could be a huge problem with so many tourists and athletes in NYC and the surrounding areas. I wonder how they would handle that, but I suppose that is a question for another forum, haha


New York is in the cone, so the emergency management officials and other authorities should be making plans.
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#2277 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:11 pm

It will be a very close call for the coast of NC up. But if it don't make the bank to the northeast going into around Surf City. But there is too many Iffffffff'ssssss on this thing
Last edited by storms in NC on Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2278 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:11 pm

Not gaining much latitude recently

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#2279 Postby BigA » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:11 pm

Also, let's not forget that even if Earl's worst misses the US east coast, the official forecast takes the center of a strong hurricane directly over Halifax, a city of 375,000 folks. Someone's going to get this storm, unfortunately.
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Re:

#2280 Postby ColinDelia » Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:12 pm

neospaceblue wrote:This is terrifying. Please, can someone tell me what are the chances of Newport News getting winds of at least 60-mph?


Probabilities here. You'll have to find a city as close to you as possible on this list
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2047.shtml

Norfolk, VA.

34 knots (39 mph) 23%
50 knots (58 mph) 8%
64 knots (74 mph) 3%
Last edited by ColinDelia on Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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