ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheBurn]

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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
Loop Above
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[SeaBrz_FL]

I posted my questions on the regular Talkin' Tropics forum yesterday, but received no responses, so am hoping one of you experts can give an opinion.

I need your feedback on expected flying conditions out of La Guardia, NY, at noon on Friday, Sept 3.

I can only monitor current models, but even if Earl stays offshore of most of the U.S. NE, what level of offshoot winds/rain could shut down LGA?

Thanks

That is REALLY problematic. Even if the latest NHC forecast holds, there should be some rain and pretty gusty winds at LaGuardia so there could be huge delays. If I had that flight, I'd change it to Thursday or Saturday. My sister is supposed to fly out on Friday and I just advised her against it. I know it's a huge inconvenience, but you have to be realistic. Unfortunately we really won't know how close Earl will come until late tomorrow or Wednesday, so you have to play it safe. Good luck!

Thanks, OzonePete. Unfortunately, they are joining us for a 7-day cruise that leaves on Saturday from Port Canaveral to the Western Carib.

Hell, the way this season is going, I just told my family that I'm packing my work laptop and everything else to just go deeper into Mexico until November, and they can sail back home without me.

I knew we were tropic gambling by booking a family FL cruise the first week of September, but I never thought the odds would fall on the NE family!

[Scorpion]

Based on all the data, I would bring the intensity down to 110 kt, seeing how even the NE quad never supported Cat 4.

Yea, highly doubt they will though, considering the pressure is quite steady.

[Florida1118]

I have to say... TWC just had a pretty 'on point' piece on the steering scenario. Not bad at all.

Really? earlier they spent 1-2 min on earl and didnt even show his path on their tropical update...spent more time on sunsets and light rain falling. So much for "The hurricane Authority". Cant say they got it easy or I could do better but a few moment on a important storm would be nice.

[Steve]

>>934mb

Damn. I'm glad that's not on my doorstep.

[linkerweather]

Based on all the data, I would bring the intensity down to 110 kt, seeing how even the NE quad never supported Cat 4.

Not necessarily relevant, as with a storm moving westward the NW quad would contain the strongest winds, not the NE.

[gpickett00]

I'm looking at my GR Level3 software from the Puerto Rico radar site and from 7:09 to 8:45 earl has moved 24nm @ 303 degrees which is a little bit west of NW if I am doing this right. From what I've read, movement can't be perfectly tracked by radar but it's the best I've got for now. Does this seem accurate? I placed a marker at the center of the eye at 7:09 p.m. and then put my mouse in the center at 8:45 and it showed 307 degrees. I'd like to know someones opinion who is more experienced. Thanks!

i def...believe that is at least 300 over the last 90 minutes.....please post again around 10 and let us know if it's a consistent movement

So, over the last few hours I kept that same place marker that I put in the center of the eye at 7:09. As of 10:41 it had moved 49.1 nm from the 7:09pm position @ 292 degrees. However between 9:05pm and 10:41pm it has been traveling at 282 degrees, barely any northerly component to its track.

[TropicalWXMA]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

[Squarethecircle]

>>Ocracoke Island

Ocracoke rules.

For sure. I'm on the island right now. I'm leaving tomorrow, but I hope the house stays up.

[Brent]

THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE
AGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

[UpTheCreek]

Editing to reflect my miserable blunder. Change to the west on the last cone!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

There have been major changes. 3 cones ago, the 3 day cone wasn't close to the coastline. Now, its practically touching it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

NHC is still shooting it off to the NE....for those in the Northeast, this is good news. NC may get swiped, but, right now, the more we see this confidence from the NHC, the better those in the NE should feel. Don't let your guard down, but, if I was in your place I'd feel pretty good. Hurricanes are really rare in the NE and this is why...things really have to come together for the NE to get a strike, and unless things change, this probably won't be your next storm. Congrats! I hope this forecast continues for you.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

"and only then if overwash has not closed Hwy 12 which is the ONLY road leading off of the banks south of Manteo."

All great points, CapePoint. I would add Hwy 12 is the ONLY road leading south from Corolla and further points north. With the sound on one side of narrow Hwy 12, and the Atlantic on the other, a hurricane to this area just destroys Highway 12 by water and drainage lack. As the volume of tourists have increased each year, I've never understood why direct access through the Virginia border isn't offered, taking Highway 12 North and then to major routes further North or West. Of course it's all politics, but when a major event occurs there must be a quicker route, such as North.

We've left the Outer Banks twice in 12 years of vacationing there due to hurricane evacuations. Sat through a few North Easters, one with a newborn too.

Hoping OBX and the EC are not seriously brushed by Earl, yet words to the wise to take and follow the precautions.

[LowndesCoFire]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Huh???

[TheDreamTraveler]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes there is.

9 PM



11 PM

[UpTheCreek]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

There have been major changes. 3 cones ago, the 3 day cone wasn't close to the coastline. Now, its practically touching it.

My MISTAKE!!! I looked at that thing 4 times too! Apologize, you're absolutely correct!!! I wish my error were in our favor though! Thanks for catching that for me, EJ!!!

[GCANE]

Wow. Core is starting to look like a real Marianas Monster.

Rain rate is picking up.

Core is still tilted with the Anti-cyclone shifted to the SW of the LLC.

As a consequence a down-draft exists under this axis.

TPW shows a dry-slot there.

With the higher rain-rate, it may indicate the core has stopped tilting and could become directly vertically aligned.

[RL3AO]

I posted this with the last advisory and I'll do it again. Remember, that even if the NHC forecast is perfect, it won't follow the black line because it would be more of a curve. The black line just connects the forecast points.

The actual track would be closer to the red line. Remember, this assumes a perfect forecast, which won't happen.

[Steve]

Looking at the NHC track and basing the shape off the NAM and GFS, it looks like part of the right front quadrant would get fairly close to the islands and the immediate coast. Hopefully the eyewall would stay offshore, but you have to know there will be some nasty squalls and maybe a tornado threat north and northwest if the NHC track verifies. It's doing to be dicey for all you coastal Carolinans. If I was there, I'd be hitting the store for bottled water tonight or early tomorrow morning just to be on the safe side. If you can beat the crowds, you're always better off hitting the grocery, liquor store, gas station, etc. than if you have to wait and get stuck in long lines.