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ozonepete wrote:SeaBrz_FL wrote:I posted my questions on the regular Talkin' Tropics forum yesterday, but received no responses, so am hoping one of you experts can give an opinion.
I need your feedback on expected flying conditions out of La Guardia, NY, at noon on Friday, Sept 3.
I can only monitor current models, but even if Earl stays offshore of most of the U.S. NE, what level of offshoot winds/rain could shut down LGA?
Thanks
That is REALLY problematic. Even if the latest NHC forecast holds, there should be some rain and pretty gusty winds at LaGuardia so there could be huge delays. If I had that flight, I'd change it to Thursday or Saturday. My sister is supposed to fly out on Friday and I just advised her against it. I know it's a huge inconvenience, but you have to be realistic. Unfortunately we really won't know how close Earl will come until late tomorrow or Wednesday, so you have to play it safe. Good luck!
TheBurn wrote:I have to say... TWC just had a pretty 'on point' piece on the steering scenario. Not bad at all.
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on all the data, I would bring the intensity down to 110 kt, seeing how even the NE quad never supported Cat 4.
cpdaman wrote:gpickett00 wrote:I'm looking at my GR Level3 software from the Puerto Rico radar site and from 7:09 to 8:45 earl has moved 24nm @ 303 degrees which is a little bit west of NW if I am doing this right. From what I've read, movement can't be perfectly tracked by radar but it's the best I've got for now. Does this seem accurate? I placed a marker at the center of the eye at 7:09 p.m. and then put my mouse in the center at 8:45 and it showed 307 degrees. I'd like to know someones opinion who is more experienced. Thanks!
i def...believe that is at least 300 over the last 90 minutes.....please post again around 10 and let us know if it's a consistent movement
Steve wrote:>>Ocracoke Island
Ocracoke rules.
UpTheCreek wrote:No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml
UpTheCreek wrote:No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml
UpTheCreek wrote:No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml
Evil Jeremy wrote:UpTheCreek wrote:No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml
There have been major changes. 3 cones ago, the 3 day cone wasn't close to the coastline. Now, its practically touching it.
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