ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ROCK]

Perhaps one of the Pro Mets can chime in, but I'm seeing some suggestions of updrafts heading E into the Western Basin. Correct me if I wrong.

Steve, are you talking about the MJO becoming favorable here in the next few days?

[TheBurn]

[Blown Away]

00z Best track
AL, 09, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 402W, 25, 1009, TD
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Itsy Bitsy Tini Wini Gaston! Not much of a man anymore but he is still there.

[Dean4Storms]

Gaston just sucked in a good bit of dry air, I think once it moves a bit further west and the moisture rebuilds he'll get going again.

[fasterdisaster]

Is the moisture behind Gaston something to watch or just ITCZ-related?

[gatorcane]

Ugh! Knew I should have stayed with my first thoughts on this system where I was forecasting slow development, if any, would occur for this system. When I saw the nhc upgrade it yesterday morning I jumped on the development bandwagon. Now I go back to my original thoughts on this system. I do think we are looking at development down the road. I'm nearly certain given the model consensus. This could be one of those systems that bust through and makes a run at the conus down the road. The leewards no longer seem to have a heightened threat.

[lonelymike]

I wonder if Gaston falling apart has anything to do with following in Danielle and Earl's footsteps? I mean the cold water wake it encountered as those two sucked up a lot of TCHP. Just sayin

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion about Ex Gaston by the San Juan NWS in tonight's update.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

WITH REGARDS TO GASTON...NHC IS INDICATING A 20% CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND A 43%
CHANCE OF ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME
FRAME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTS
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL LIKE GASTON AND DEVELOP IT INTO A HURRICANE IN FIVE
DAYS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR LARGER TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST TO
ABSORB GASTON AS IT CATCHES UP TO HIM HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE. ANYWAY...EVEN IN THE CASE OF GASTON COMING BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM ANY EFFECTS WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL AT LEAST TUE
AT THE EARLIEST AND NOT LIKELY UNTIL WED OF NEXT WEEK. SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.

[Sanibel]

Now that GFDL is on it and into the Caribbean I think it will form. Anything can happen on that track in this climatology.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well only time will tell. First off Gaston has to regenerate itself and then we will see where it goes.

[boca]

I wonder if the thunderstorms along the ITCZ will move up into Gaston flow to regererate the storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[Ptarmigan]

Since Gaston weakened to a tropical wave, it may have a better chance of not recurving and heading into the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf once it re-develops.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TYNI]

Since Gaston weakened to a tropical wave, it may have a better chance of not recurving and heading into the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf once it re-develops.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good point Ptarmigan. Lack of organization may allow it to meander, avoiding normal steering effects.

[Brent]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Guess we will have to wait and see what happens to Gaston. Once the dry air disperses Gaston may come back.

[aerology]

I think Gaston fell victim to the same global mechanism as Bonnie, Colin, and Fiona, had the life sucked out of them by a +ion generator effect.
http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/wspac ... 1&showsc=1
Just as soon as this occurred, the process of increased global precipitation reversed back into a pattern of increasing pole to equator homopolar generator charge gradient. Tropical storm activity will be on hold until this time;
http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/wspac ... 1&showsc=1
Then we are in for a greater surge of global Tropical storm production, and some of the highest ACE values for the year.

[ColinDelia]

Still has considerable, symmetric vorticity.

[boca]

I think Gaston fell victim to the same global mechanism as Bonnie, Colin, and Fiona, had the life sucked out of them by a +ion generator effect.
http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/wspac ... 1&showsc=1
Just as soon as this occurred, the process of increased global precipitation reversed back into a pattern of increasing pole to equator homopolar generator charge gradient. Tropical storm activity will be on hold until this time;
http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/wspac ... 1&showsc=1
Then we are in for a greater surge of global Tropical storm production, and some of the highest ACE values for the year.

So your saying the tropics should pick up after the 21st of this month.

[boca]

I'm in the comeback camp because it looks like the moisture from the ITCZ will get entrained into the circulation of Gaston. Thunderstorms are poping around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-avn.html

[Brent]

May be making a comeback: