ATL: GASTON - Models

[ROCK]

if it doesnt make that connection at 216hr with that trof, look out FL and GOM.....still though 216hr is la la land....

[caneseddy]

The GFS has been on the recurve wagon for the past couple of runs, but each run has been getting Gaston further west before recurving. I agree that this is going to be one of these storms that's going to keep many awake...remember most S. Florida strikes are from the Caribbean

As always, it's all going to come down to timing, timing, and timing...but here in South Florida, I always fear the Caribbean storms coming from down south....the more west it goes into the Caribbean, the higher the chances that a trough (like the GFS picks up on) kicks it up this way before recurving

Next week is going to be very interesting methinks

[Ptarmigan]

Gaston needs to be watched. Since it weakened to a tropical wave, it is more likely to move west. I think Gaston has a good chance of being a hurricane.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC ends run just south of PR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

long range canadian approaching Florida straits

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro..strong reflection hitting

Belize

[bamajammer4eva]

Gaston needs to be watched. Since it weakened to a tropical wave, it is more likely to move west. I think Gaston has a good chance of being a hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wasn't this the storm that they were saying if it stayed weak it would recurve but if it strengthened it would head west?

[supercane]

Last 4 runs of GFS:

[KWT]

Most models seem to have a solution where a weak system could well miss the trough connection and end up being a W.Caribbean/Gulf threat but the synoptics are such that a stronger system probably will recurve through the Islands...

[dexterlabio]

Where is this tropical wave Gaston located right now?

[OURAGAN]

the models send it directly to Guadeloupe, i hope they are wrong

[ColinDelia]

6z. 84 hours. Very weak. It has the ULL moving west to over Cuba so that is not a factor it looks like.

[ColinDelia]

180 hours. Very weak. Over Haiti.

[KWT]

Yeah a much weaker run from the GFS, closer to ECM in that respect.

We will see, when the models all trend weaker more often then not that is what occurs...however a weaker system also gets further west in this set-up.

[perk]

The 6OZ GFS completely loses Gaston.

[KWT]

Yeah looks lime it gets to the Yucatan then just vanishes...not sure we should be putting faith into the strength though until we have a developed system again...I'd normally not say that but in this case I think it may well help the models out.

Either way the weaker it stays the bigger the threat becomes for Central America, Mexico and most of the Gulf...BUT I'd say the safest place you could be right now looking at the models is the central Gulf...models very keen on a big upper high shielding that region right now but clearly time for huge changes still.

[floridasun78]

NAM 06 UTC

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Moving a little bit faster.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100904  1200   100905  0000   100905  1200   100906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  45.6W   16.9N  47.6W   17.4N  50.0W   17.9N  52.5W
BAMD    16.3N  45.6W   16.9N  47.7W   17.0N  50.0W   16.9N  52.7W
BAMM    16.3N  45.6W   16.7N  47.3W   16.8N  49.2W   16.7N  51.4W
LBAR    16.3N  45.6W   17.2N  47.7W   18.2N  50.2W   19.1N  52.8W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100906  1200   100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  55.5W   18.7N  61.5W   19.3N  66.4W   19.5N  70.4W
BAMD    16.6N  55.9W   16.1N  62.5W   15.9N  67.9W   15.4N  72.4W
BAMM    16.4N  53.9W   16.2N  59.1W   16.7N  63.4W   17.2N  66.4W
LBAR    19.7N  55.7W   20.3N  61.4W   19.9N  66.0W   16.2N  67.3W
SHIP        62KTS          79KTS          92KTS         106KTS
DSHP        62KTS          79KTS          92KTS         102KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  45.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  15.3N LONM12 =  43.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 =  41.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KWT]

Strength will be vital to the models, most are trending weaker and thus as you can see there is not even a hint of recurve in the models right now...

The worst case is something like the CMC which stays weak, strengthens a little and lifts out BUT not enough and the system gets far enough west just to the north of the islands to head westwards again towards the Gulf.

The slight WSW bend is obvious on most of the models now.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS.

It initialized the center too far south to begin with. Best track had 15.8N at 6z whereas GFS had 15.1N.
GFS turns back south after reaching 15.9N at 30 hours. It is interesting that GFS has a southerly component
to motion from 30 hours to 78 hours (see KWT above )


AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 000, 151N, 434W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 006, 155N, 443W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 012, 157N, 453W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 018, 157N, 464W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 024, 158N, 477W, 24, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 030, 159N, 490W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 036, 158N, 502W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 042, 158N, 515W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 048, 156N, 528W, 25, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 054, 153N, 541W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 060, 157N, 553W, 25, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 066, 153N, 566W, 25, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 072, 151N, 580W, 27, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 078, 151N, 592W, 26, 1012, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 084, 153N, 605W, 23, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 090, 154N, 614W, 24, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 096, 155N, 624W, 23, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 102, 154N, 634W, 23, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 108, 159N, 641W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 114, 160N, 650W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 120, 159N, 655W, 21, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 126, 161N, 661W, 21, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 132, 162N, 669W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 138, 164N, 671W, 20, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 144, 165N, 677W, 22, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 150, 168N, 681W, 22, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 156, 170N, 690W, 20, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 162, 170N, 694W, 20, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090406, 03, GFSO, 168, 170N, 701W, 18, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV