ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
He's still popping Convection just needs to keep it over the center and keep from waning.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
Bailey1777 wrote:ir showing some high tops IMO this may be the comeback starting. i stand by the no recurve and my only question is where in the gom does it go.
I agree, now that this isn't developing very quickly, the chance of this recurving out to sea is slim to none.....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
IMO gastov is one tough dude basically living on nothing at all this is why imo as conditions improve we will see a quality storm.
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supercane wrote:Latest ASCAT still shows a low:
[img]
Oh yeah, there's a closed low there no question. The big concern is, does Gaston have enough persistent convection to be classified a TS?
I'd argue that, based on guidance and proximity to land, there should be an upgrade quickly, to allow time for warnings to go up...... but........ those aren't necessarily the "correct" criteria to be using.....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
05/2345 UTC 20.6N 95.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
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convection needs to persist in a organized way before upgrade....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
And like Cycloneye said they should be sending planes according to their schedule to investigate him so they might be waiting for a combo of that and more convection...
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Well here we sit for about the 3rd night or so anticipating an upgrade and Gaston continues to defy conventional wisdom and loses its convection on a regular basis.
All the experts have pegged this incorrectly, which happens.
That's what makes this science so fascinating. Why the unexpected happens and why systems like Gaston don't do as expected.
Meanwhile, calls for upgrades continue and the "stubborn" NHC proves to be correct in leaving this system as a remnant low.
For now...........
All the experts have pegged this incorrectly, which happens.
That's what makes this science so fascinating. Why the unexpected happens and why systems like Gaston don't do as expected.
Meanwhile, calls for upgrades continue and the "stubborn" NHC proves to be correct in leaving this system as a remnant low.
For now...........
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
aric we are starting to get around the time you and i speculated a ramp up, how do you feel now? in my opinion we are 3 to 4 days away from a significant cane in the gom are you on board?
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fci wrote:Well here we sit for about the 3rd night or so anticipating an upgrade and Gaston continues to defy conventional wisdom and loses its convection on a regular basis.
All the experts have pegged this incorrectly, which happens.
That's what makes this science so fascinating. Why the unexpected happens and why systems like Gaston don't do as expected.
Meanwhile, calls for upgrades continue and the "stubborn" NHC proves to be correct in leaving this system as a remnant low.
For now...........
hehe i have taken about two days off at looking at gaston... except for a chime ins.... There was too much pointing to it remaining weak till this evening and basically right on gue the convection is trying to make a comeback but still needs time..
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
Bailey1777 wrote:aric we are starting to get around the time you and i speculated a ramp up, how do you feel now? in my opinion we are 3 to 4 days away from a significant cane in the gom are you on board?
well I said this evening is when it should start reaching a better environment so that at least convection would refire ... it still needs to get closer to the islands before we see things possibly re develop...and its too early to say if it will strengthen enough because it will all depend on track north or south or over the mountains
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Convection for the first time is firing right over the center on the last couple frames... it just needs to maintain.. but I think the shear is still a little too high atm tomorrow we should see a little decrease in the shear ..
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
come on aric weve been watching these for years i undersfand reasoning but dont you sometimes just have that gut feeling? thats me this time
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
Bailey1777 wrote:come on aric weve been watching these for years i undersfand reasoning but dont you sometimes just have that gut feeling? thats me this time
well we all have feelings... I just learned to wait and see if my feelings are right or wrong.. I would say I feel like its worth watching still

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
right when this storm became tropical storm gaston i had a feeling this was gom bound as a hurricane. just my gut though.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
ok.......ok.......politically correct but just remember i think this one will be retiringIMO
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
South Texas Storms wrote:right when this storm became tropical storm gaston i had a feeling this was gom bound as a hurricane. just my gut though.
You already have TD 10 that's in the gulf and you had Alex in June.
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