ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Florida1118

Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1161 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:21 pm

He's still popping Convection just needs to keep it over the center and keep from waning.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1162 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:22 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:ir showing some high tops IMO this may be the comeback starting. i stand by the no recurve and my only question is where in the gom does it go.



I agree, now that this isn't developing very quickly, the chance of this recurving out to sea is slim to none.....
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#1163 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:30 pm

How worried should I be here in SFL?
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#1164 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:33 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:How worried should I be here in SFL?

Looking at the models, It looks like 1/2 take it to the Yuc. and the other take it over North/Central Hispaniola heading WNW. Im just going to keep a eye on it if that helps anything.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1165 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:42 pm

IMO gastov is one tough dude basically living on nothing at all this is why imo as conditions improve we will see a quality storm.
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Re:

#1166 Postby TCmet » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:43 pm

supercane wrote:Latest ASCAT still shows a low:
[img]


Oh yeah, there's a closed low there no question. The big concern is, does Gaston have enough persistent convection to be classified a TS?

I'd argue that, based on guidance and proximity to land, there should be an upgrade quickly, to allow time for warnings to go up...... but........ those aren't necessarily the "correct" criteria to be using.....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1167 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:44 pm

05/2345 UTC 20.6N 95.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic
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#1168 Postby Migle » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:46 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:How worried should I be here in SFL?


I would say there's a less than 10% chance that you get anything from this.
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#1169 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:48 pm

convection needs to persist in a organized way before upgrade....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1170 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:50 pm

And like Cycloneye said they should be sending planes according to their schedule to investigate him so they might be waiting for a combo of that and more convection...
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#1171 Postby fci » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:54 pm

Well here we sit for about the 3rd night or so anticipating an upgrade and Gaston continues to defy conventional wisdom and loses its convection on a regular basis.
All the experts have pegged this incorrectly, which happens.
That's what makes this science so fascinating. Why the unexpected happens and why systems like Gaston don't do as expected.
Meanwhile, calls for upgrades continue and the "stubborn" NHC proves to be correct in leaving this system as a remnant low.

For now...........
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1172 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:54 pm

aric we are starting to get around the time you and i speculated a ramp up, how do you feel now? in my opinion we are 3 to 4 days away from a significant cane in the gom are you on board?
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#1173 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:56 pm

fci wrote:Well here we sit for about the 3rd night or so anticipating an upgrade and Gaston continues to defy conventional wisdom and loses its convection on a regular basis.
All the experts have pegged this incorrectly, which happens.
That's what makes this science so fascinating. Why the unexpected happens and why systems like Gaston don't do as expected.
Meanwhile, calls for upgrades continue and the "stubborn" NHC proves to be correct in leaving this system as a remnant low.

For now...........


hehe i have taken about two days off at looking at gaston... except for a chime ins.... There was too much pointing to it remaining weak till this evening and basically right on gue the convection is trying to make a comeback but still needs time..
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1174 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:01 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:aric we are starting to get around the time you and i speculated a ramp up, how do you feel now? in my opinion we are 3 to 4 days away from a significant cane in the gom are you on board?


well I said this evening is when it should start reaching a better environment so that at least convection would refire ... it still needs to get closer to the islands before we see things possibly re develop...and its too early to say if it will strengthen enough because it will all depend on track north or south or over the mountains
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#1175 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:04 pm

Convection for the first time is firing right over the center on the last couple frames... it just needs to maintain.. but I think the shear is still a little too high atm tomorrow we should see a little decrease in the shear ..
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1176 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:08 pm

come on aric weve been watching these for years i undersfand reasoning but dont you sometimes just have that gut feeling? thats me this time
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1177 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:11 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:come on aric weve been watching these for years i undersfand reasoning but dont you sometimes just have that gut feeling? thats me this time


well we all have feelings... I just learned to wait and see if my feelings are right or wrong.. I would say I feel like its worth watching still :)
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1178 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:15 pm

right when this storm became tropical storm gaston i had a feeling this was gom bound as a hurricane. just my gut though.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1179 Postby Bailey1777 » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:17 pm

ok.......ok.......politically correct but just remember i think this one will be retiringIMO
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1180 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:21 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:right when this storm became tropical storm gaston i had a feeling this was gom bound as a hurricane. just my gut though.


You already have TD 10 that's in the gulf and you had Alex in June.
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