ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Migle]

So we now have Hurricane Watches up for Southern Texas.

[bvigal]

Some mighty cold cloud tops S of the center...

For sure! I'm very impressed with the buildup of clouds last few hours, have been watching on the SSD GOM (in order to see all of Texas coast) funk-top enhancement loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

[jinftl]

Now moving NNW

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

[KWT]

Slowly looks like its gaining more westerly motion over the past 12hrs or so, swang round from NNE to NNW and not that far from a NW track...N.Mexico/border landfall looking most likely now, think it'll make landfall just south of the border but obviously its going to be a somewhat close call either way!

[jinftl]

Probability of sustained winds of 34kt (39mph), 50kt (58mph), 64kt (74mph) by location as of 11am edt advisory:

GALVESTON 34KT 11%
GALVESTON 50KT 0%
GALVESTON 64KT 0%

PORT O CONNOR 34KT 32%
PORT O CONNOR 50KT 3%
PORT O CONNOR 64KT 0%

CORPUS CHRISTI 34KT 64%
CORPUS CHRISTI 50KT 17%
CORPUS CHRISTI 64KT 3%

BROWNSVILLE 34KT 87%
BROWNSVILLE 50KT 47%
BROWNSVILLE 64KT 8%

Even inland locations have some chance of strong winds (these are fairly low chances until you get to San Antonio and south - let's watch the trend of later updates to this):

HOUSTON 34KT 12%
HOUSTON 50KT 0%
HOUSTON 64KT 0%

AUSTIN 34KT 16%
AUSTIN 50KT 0%
AUSTIN 64KT 0%

SAN ANTONIO 34KT 30%
SAN ANTONIO 50KT 3%
SAN ANTONIO 64KT 0%

[cycloneye]

What happened to the plane that turned around?

[PauleinHouston]

Great question there...issue with plane possibly? Of course, if there was an issue, I would assume, being a pilot, that it would head for a closer land destination than it's origin....strange!!

[cycloneye]

Great question there...issue with plane possibly? Of course, if there was an issue, I would assume, being a pilot, that it would head for a closer land destination than it's origin....strange!!

Look where it ended and turned around.

[clfenwi]

Recon just doesn't like these BOC storms Recall that a plane headed to Alex had to return to base because of radar problems. Probably the same case here.

[FrontRunner]

Issue with the instrumentation perhaps? The wind readings looked pretty wacky (to my untrained eye) in the last couple sets of observations.

It would be a shame to miss out on getting a plane in this storm. Hopefully whatever the issue is they'll be able to resolve it and get another flight out there this evening.

[PauleinHouston]

Yeah, based on the reverse track coordinates so far, I'm guessing an issue with some of the data gathering systems on board. Smart thing to do would be to launch another now!

[Aric Dunn]

So I see the track shifted north to TX/mex border. not surprised

[dixiebreeze]

I remember last night people were laughing at me thinking this would go into rapid intensification...I was pretty much alone thinking we might see Hurricane Hermine.

I thought the same thing but decided not to post it. Also wondering if that strong front might push Hermine somewhat east.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT
;

[AdamFirst]

Unbelievable how this storm just sprang up overnight...you think Cantore is flying to brownsville as we speak?

[cycloneye]

Unless they scramble another plane for this afternoon, the next one is for the overnight hours.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
        A. 07/0600,1200Z
        B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
        C. 07/0300Z
        D. 22.0N 97.5W
        E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


[Portastorm]

I think Hurricane Hermine will move ashore just north of Brownsville tomorrow morning. Fairly confident landfall won't be north of Corpus.

Well, if we are going to have a US landfall, that's the place to do it...Kenedy County...population 388.

Wow! I think most of us here were looking thousands of miles away in the Atlantic, checking out SAL and anything else, every once in while one of the models would show something in the western gulf but we'd say what is that and ignore it, but lo and behold something forms out of nowhere right under our noses, crazy

Well actually ... Hermine had model support late last week. The NAM was the only one who showed a deep tropical cyclone like we are seeing now. Most of us, including me, kinda laughed off the NAM. No one is laughing now.

[Stephanie]

All of the action has been in the Atlantic this year except for one. I am surprised that this one sprung up a little unexpectedly. I hope you all just get some good rain from Hermine down there in Texas.

[Garnet1995]

Anyone have thoughts about any preperations we should do in Houston. I am very West actually Richmond TX. We should prepare for heavy rains only is my thinking. I am sick and don't really want to think at all. Sorry I sound dumb but need to prepare and then sleep.

[ConvergenceZone]

Texas really needs the rain from what I understand. Hopefully it won't come too quick. On the plus side, much of texas should see some rain from this, based upon the last precip forecast I saw.