ATL: KARL - Models

[KWT]

Hmmm thats a couple of models that usually get quite bullish not developing it...not a good sign for the system to be honest!

[Bailey1777]

isn't this a replay of yesterday? on again off again models.

[tolakram]

Canadian drops it

Nah, just reduces the size a great deal.

Canadian 12z at 72h


Euro 0z at 72h

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z GFDL kills 92L in 6 hours.

[Ivanhater]

True Mark, but I meant as a classified system.

You are right though, it does show a trackable reflection.

[KWT]

Quite possibly it is, need to see whether more systems join those two models in not developing this region, ECM will be important as well of course.

Not sure the GFS based models have a good grip on the synoptics though to be honest either with how quick quite a few of them get to Hispaniola and further north then that, doesn't make much sense really.

[tolakram]

If it's going to be a small storm then there will be a resolution issue. I see a green dot, even if it's small, as a TS at least. /shrug ... no real science behind that, just observational and quite possibly wrong.

[KWT]

CMC probably shows a system like ex-Gaston in the Central Atlantic, there is some sort of lower pressure with the system, maybe even a weak LLC but its not enough to strengthen for whatever reason...

HWRF weakly develops it then pulls that strange due north trick again and ends up in the Bahamas as a disturbance/weak TD.

ECM out to 48hrs shows a weak system but it is stronger at this point then the 00z run showed.

[blazess556]

12z euro has it at 1004mb in the Caribbean moving wnw at 72 hours.

[KWT]

Motion between 48-72hrs looks almost west, maybe 280 and is south of the 12z run yesterday which only just made it to the BoC...

Will be interesting but doubt it gains enough latitude to be a threat anywhere bar maybe Texas for the states, should gain more latitude in the W.Caribbean though so should get into the BoC/S.Gulf in the end.

[KWT]

Gains more latitude at 96hrs heading near NW, close to Jamaica but no stronger then at 72hrs so holding steady as probably a weak TS on this run if you take it per say...

Alot depends on how quick any upper ridging develops, if it takes its time then this one will get become more of a threat, if it occurs like the 00z ECM suggests then it'll probably be a Mexico storm unless it gets far enough north before then.

[Red Seal]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/10091012/57.phase1.png

[KFDM Meteorologist]

156 HRS EURO crossing Yucatan headed for BOC

[Vortex]

globals not doing much on the 12Z run....

[KWT]

Barely in the BoC from the looks of things on this run...could quite easily never even make it to the BoC on this run...

I do think the ECM overdoes the SE ridging at times though, it certainly overdid it for Alex at times, when the ECM also tried to palm Alex into far southern BoC...when in truth it ended up hitting N.Mexico.

Pattern is very favourable for strengthening in the BoC though it has to be said...so if it got far enough north could quite easily become a hurricane with the ECM upper pattern.

[frederic79]

If I'm not mistaken there is a cold front forecast to affect the northern GOM Sunday or Monday. Wouldn't this pretty much recurve anything that might approach from the SE gulf, if 92L does in fact develop into something?

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100910 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1800   100911  0600   100911  1800   100912  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  60.4W   13.9N  62.0W   14.7N  63.7W   15.2N  65.5W
BAMD    13.2N  60.4W   13.9N  62.2W   14.7N  64.1W   15.4N  66.0W
BAMM    13.2N  60.4W   13.8N  62.2W   14.5N  64.3W   15.0N  66.4W
LBAR    13.2N  60.4W   13.7N  61.8W   14.6N  63.6W   15.5N  65.6W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1800   100913  1800   100914  1800   100915  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  67.5W   16.7N  71.5W   17.4N  76.0W   17.9N  80.8W
BAMD    16.2N  67.9W   17.7N  71.6W   19.4N  74.9W   20.2N  77.6W
BAMM    15.6N  68.6W   16.6N  73.2W   17.5N  78.1W   18.4N  83.7W
LBAR    16.3N  67.8W   18.1N  72.2W   20.6N  75.7W   22.7N  78.0W
SHIP        59KTS          74KTS          82KTS          99KTS
DSHP        59KTS          74KTS          82KTS          99KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  60.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  59.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.2N LONM24 =  58.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

18Z Bamd shifts right

[Vortex]

moving at 300 Deg now....