ATL: KARL - Models

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#181 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:27 pm

Hmmm thats a couple of models that usually get quite bullish not developing it...not a good sign for the system to be honest!
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#182 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:34 pm

isn't this a replay of yesterday? on again off again models.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#183 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:53 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Canadian drops it


Nah, just reduces the size a great deal.

Canadian 12z at 72h
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Euro 0z at 72h
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#184 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:53 pm

12Z GFDL kills 92L in 6 hours.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#185 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:55 pm

True Mark, but I meant as a classified system.

You are right though, it does show a trackable reflection.
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#186 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:55 pm

Quite possibly it is, need to see whether more systems join those two models in not developing this region, ECM will be important as well of course.

Not sure the GFS based models have a good grip on the synoptics though to be honest either with how quick quite a few of them get to Hispaniola and further north then that, doesn't make much sense really.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#187 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:00 pm

If it's going to be a small storm then there will be a resolution issue. I see a green dot, even if it's small, as a TS at least. /shrug ... no real science behind that, just observational and quite possibly wrong.
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#188 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:10 pm

CMC probably shows a system like ex-Gaston in the Central Atlantic, there is some sort of lower pressure with the system, maybe even a weak LLC but its not enough to strengthen for whatever reason...

HWRF weakly develops it then pulls that strange due north trick again and ends up in the Bahamas as a disturbance/weak TD.

ECM out to 48hrs shows a weak system but it is stronger at this point then the 00z run showed.
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#189 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:15 pm

12z euro has it at 1004mb in the Caribbean moving wnw at 72 hours.
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#190 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:20 pm

Motion between 48-72hrs looks almost west, maybe 280 and is south of the 12z run yesterday which only just made it to the BoC...

Will be interesting but doubt it gains enough latitude to be a threat anywhere bar maybe Texas for the states, should gain more latitude in the W.Caribbean though so should get into the BoC/S.Gulf in the end.
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#191 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:24 pm

Gains more latitude at 96hrs heading near NW, close to Jamaica but no stronger then at 72hrs so holding steady as probably a weak TS on this run if you take it per say...

Alot depends on how quick any upper ridging develops, if it takes its time then this one will get become more of a threat, if it occurs like the 00z ECM suggests then it'll probably be a Mexico storm unless it gets far enough north before then.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#192 Postby Red Seal » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:32 pm

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#193 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:33 pm

156 HRS EURO crossing Yucatan headed for BOC
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#194 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:34 pm

globals not doing much on the 12Z run....
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#195 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:37 pm

Barely in the BoC from the looks of things on this run...could quite easily never even make it to the BoC on this run...

I do think the ECM overdoes the SE ridging at times though, it certainly overdid it for Alex at times, when the ECM also tried to palm Alex into far southern BoC...when in truth it ended up hitting N.Mexico.

Pattern is very favourable for strengthening in the BoC though it has to be said...so if it got far enough north could quite easily become a hurricane with the ECM upper pattern.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#196 Postby frederic79 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:47 pm

If I'm not mistaken there is a cold front forecast to affect the northern GOM Sunday or Monday. Wouldn't this pretty much recurve anything that might approach from the SE gulf, if 92L does in fact develop into something?
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#197 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:53 pm

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100910 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1800   100911  0600   100911  1800   100912  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  60.4W   13.9N  62.0W   14.7N  63.7W   15.2N  65.5W
BAMD    13.2N  60.4W   13.9N  62.2W   14.7N  64.1W   15.4N  66.0W
BAMM    13.2N  60.4W   13.8N  62.2W   14.5N  64.3W   15.0N  66.4W
LBAR    13.2N  60.4W   13.7N  61.8W   14.6N  63.6W   15.5N  65.6W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1800   100913  1800   100914  1800   100915  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  67.5W   16.7N  71.5W   17.4N  76.0W   17.9N  80.8W
BAMD    16.2N  67.9W   17.7N  71.6W   19.4N  74.9W   20.2N  77.6W
BAMM    15.6N  68.6W   16.6N  73.2W   17.5N  78.1W   18.4N  83.7W
LBAR    16.3N  67.8W   18.1N  72.2W   20.6N  75.7W   22.7N  78.0W
SHIP        59KTS          74KTS          82KTS          99KTS
DSHP        59KTS          74KTS          82KTS          99KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  60.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  59.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.2N LONM24 =  58.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Image
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models

#198 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:54 pm

Image
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#199 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:58 pm

18Z Bamd shifts right
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#200 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:00 pm

moving at 300 Deg now....
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