ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Red Seal]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds88.png

[poof121]

A little closer view of ASCAT...

[Aric Dunn]

radar.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?88

Do you see it at the best track position 13.2N-60.4W?

yeah thats pretty much right on...

[cycloneye]

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

[tolakram]

Did we miss this?

[jlauderdal]

Did we miss this?

is there something on that map we didn't know?

[tolakram]

The TAFB issues a TCFA, which is usually noted here. 50% chance of development doesn't always correspond to the issuance of a TCFA.

[FireBird]

Earlier this morning, I started seeing some signs of action - the rain clouds were heading N to NW. Winds started picking up too. But since then, we're back to stationary overcast conditions. Just some light rain and wind in between. What a drag!
I think by the time this thing gets going, Igor's gonna be in the area, and influence the outcome of lil ole 92L. JMHO

[Blown Away]

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

What have they been saying about Igor?

[Vortex]

Pressures continue to fall around barbados

4pm





Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)
Updated: 4:00 PM AST on September 10, 2010
82 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles

[chrisjslucia]

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

Cyclone, which area do they mean when they refer to "THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS"?

[Weatherfreak000]

Organizing nicely so far today. Code Red at 8 P.M. may be looking good if this can sustain.

[cycloneye]

Cyclone, which area do they mean when they refer to "THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS"?

South of 15N.

[Vortex]

Barbados history since 10am today. Decent pressure drop.



10:00 AM 84.2 °F 77.0 °F 79% 29.86 in 6.2 miles SSE 15.0 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
11:00 AM 85 °F 76 °F 67% 29.85 in 6 miles SSE 9.2 mph - - Mostly Cloudy
11:00 AM 84.2 °F 75.2 °F 74% 29.86 in 6.2 miles SSE 9.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
12:00 PM 86.0 °F 75.2 °F 70% 29.86 in 6.2 miles South 15.0 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
1:00 PM 86.0 °F 75.2 °F 70% 29.83 in 6.2 miles South 12.7 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
2:00 PM 84 °F 78 °F 76% 29.81 in 6 miles South 17.3 mph - - Rain Light Rain Showers
2:00 PM 84.2 °F 77.0 °F 79% 29.80 in 6.2 miles South 17.3 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
3:00 PM 78.8 °F 75.2 °F 89% 29.80 in 6.2 miles South 13.8 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
4:00 PM 82.4 °F 75.2 °F 79% 29.77 in

[wxman57]

Development still looks to be beyond 48 hrs to me. Maybe Sunday night or Monday. Lots of sinking air in the region presently - not conducive to maintaining convection. That may change early next week.

[wx247]

I am with wxman57 on this. I don't see a red alert at 7 p.m. Conditions look favorable for development, I believe it will be a slow process... beyond the 48 hour outlook window.

As always, just my $.04!

[TheBurn]

[Vortex]

looking good there burn...

[RL3AO]

I agree. This still needs another 72 hours IMO. However, we could be looking at a developing TC near Jamaica in the middle of September next week. Watch out.

[Vortex]

IMO, I think "Julia" will be somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba or the western tip of Haiti in about 4 days moving WNW...given the forecasted synoptics...