ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Red Seal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:03 am
Location: Texas Coastal

#261 Postby Red Seal » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:08 pm

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data

poof121
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 316
Age: 44
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:33 am
Location: Laurel, MD

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#262 Postby poof121 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:10 pm

A little closer view of ASCAT...

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#263 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:



Do you see it at the best track position 13.2N-60.4W?


yeah thats pretty much right on...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#264 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:20 pm

From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#265 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:36 pm

Did we miss this?

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7177
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#266 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:41 pm

tolakram wrote:Did we miss this?

Image


is there something on that map we didn't know?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#267 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:44 pm

The TAFB issues a TCFA, which is usually noted here. 50% chance of development doesn't always correspond to the issuance of a TCFA.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

FireBird
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Location: NorthWest Trinidad, SE Caribbean

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#268 Postby FireBird » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:46 pm

Earlier this morning, I started seeing some signs of action - the rain clouds were heading N to NW. Winds started picking up too. But since then, we're back to stationary overcast conditions. Just some light rain and wind in between. What a drag!
I think by the time this thing gets going, Igor's gonna be in the area, and influence the outcome of lil ole 92L. JMHO
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#269 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.


What have they been saying about Igor?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#270 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:07 pm

Pressures continue to fall around barbados

4pm





Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)
Updated: 4:00 PM AST on September 10, 2010
82 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
0 likes   

chrisjslucia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 236
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 8:27 pm
Location: St Lucia

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#271 Postby chrisjslucia » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:From this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.


Cyclone, which area do they mean when they refer to "THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS"?
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

#272 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:09 pm

Organizing nicely so far today. Code Red at 8 P.M. may be looking good if this can sustain.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#273 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:09 pm

Cyclone, which area do they mean when they refer to "THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS"?


South of 15N.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#274 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:09 pm

Barbados history since 10am today. Decent pressure drop.



10:00 AM 84.2 °F 77.0 °F 79% 29.86 in 6.2 miles SSE 15.0 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
11:00 AM 85 °F 76 °F 67% 29.85 in 6 miles SSE 9.2 mph - - Mostly Cloudy
11:00 AM 84.2 °F 75.2 °F 74% 29.86 in 6.2 miles SSE 9.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
12:00 PM 86.0 °F 75.2 °F 70% 29.86 in 6.2 miles South 15.0 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
1:00 PM 86.0 °F 75.2 °F 70% 29.83 in 6.2 miles South 12.7 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
2:00 PM 84 °F 78 °F 76% 29.81 in 6 miles South 17.3 mph - - Rain Light Rain Showers
2:00 PM 84.2 °F 77.0 °F 79% 29.80 in 6.2 miles South 17.3 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
3:00 PM 78.8 °F 75.2 °F 89% 29.80 in 6.2 miles South 13.8 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
4:00 PM 82.4 °F 75.2 °F 79% 29.77 in
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22951
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#275 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:10 pm

Development still looks to be beyond 48 hrs to me. Maybe Sunday night or Monday. Lots of sinking air in the region presently - not conducive to maintaining convection. That may change early next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#276 Postby wx247 » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:35 pm

I am with wxman57 on this. I don't see a red alert at 7 p.m. Conditions look favorable for development, I believe it will be a slow process... beyond the 48 hour outlook window.

As always, just my $.04! :D
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#277 Postby TheBurn » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:36 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#278 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:39 pm

looking good there burn...
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#279 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:56 pm

I agree. This still needs another 72 hours IMO. However, we could be looking at a developing TC near Jamaica in the middle of September next week. Watch out.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#280 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2010 4:00 pm

IMO, I think "Julia" will be somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba or the western tip of Haiti in about 4 days moving WNW...given the forecasted synoptics...
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 52 guests