Global model runs discussion
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- HouTXmetro
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- cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
If GFS is right,September will end on a very active note.


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Note the big high over the NE States...thats what we've been fearing all season and whilst mid-late September is a rather unusual time to get systems all the way across, esp if they develop early, if we can get a system to form say 40-50W then there won't be much to lift them out, only to gain latitude.
The East coast needs to watch out, its a perfect pattern to drive a system into them if that does set-up...
The East coast needs to watch out, its a perfect pattern to drive a system into them if that does set-up...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
What do you mean by entertaining? Because the storms have been very interesting for me this season.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
00Z GFS, which shows Igor recurving and brushing Atlantic Canada is showing a developing system down past the Windward Islands at around 252 hours and intensifies it in the central Caribbean
At 300 hours, it has it as a hurricane SE of Jamaica...high to the north steering it West....at 369, major hurricane heading towards the Yucatan channel..at 372 starts to recurve to the north past 83W approaches southern coast of Cuba..run ends with this major hurricane going over western Cuba
If this run verifies (and with this long range, not a very high probability), South Florida seems to be in the crosshairs yet again (where have I seen that before
)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
At 300 hours, it has it as a hurricane SE of Jamaica...high to the north steering it West....at 369, major hurricane heading towards the Yucatan channel..at 372 starts to recurve to the north past 83W approaches southern coast of Cuba..run ends with this major hurricane going over western Cuba
If this run verifies (and with this long range, not a very high probability), South Florida seems to be in the crosshairs yet again (where have I seen that before

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
I have been looking at the ultra long range CFS this week and I have noticed that it is advertising activity beginning to happen in the Caribbean at the end of the month. The runs have been inconsistent in terms of pinpointing a system but I am looking more at the pattern and judging by its successful record so far in predicting the weakness at 60W this year I give it a little more weight. Let's see if the GFS continues to show development in the Carribean.
Thursday 00z 528hr CFS

Wednesday 432 hr CFS

Tuesday 396hr CFS

Thursday 00z 528hr CFS

Wednesday 432 hr CFS

Tuesday 396hr CFS

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- gatorcane
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
caneseddy wrote:00Z GFS, which shows Igor recurving and brushing Atlantic Canada is showing a developing system down past the Windward Islands at around 252 hours and intensifies it in the central Caribbean
At 300 hours, it has it as a hurricane SE of Jamaica...high to the north steering it West....at 369, major hurricane heading towards the Yucatan channel..at 372 starts to recurve to the north past 83W approaches southern coast of Cuba..run ends with this major hurricane going over western Cuba
If this run verifies (and with this long range, not a very high probability), South Florida seems to be in the crosshairs yet again (where have I seen that before)
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
Well I'm glad its 384 hours out, though as we move into late September into October, I wouldn't surpised to see some threats for Florida, since we are in an active, La Nina season, and October is the month more systems have hit Southern Florida than any other month
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
06z GFS still sticks with a future Caribbean storm (not 92L) and still has it moving WNW towards Hispaniola at 276 hours..at 288 approaching SE tip of Hispaniola...300 hours intensifying as it brushes southern coast of Hispaniola as it heads WNW.....at 312, weakening over southern tip of Haiti....at 324 moving W after hitting southern peninsula of Haiti....at 336 reintensifying after exiting Haiti...at 348 moving north towards southern tip of Cuba.....at 369 hurricane about to strike southern Cuba...at 372, hurricane landfall on the Granma Peninsula..at 384 after briefly exiting back to open water, second landfall on the Camaguey peninsula
Second run in a row that shows a Caribbean hurricane towards the end of the month..a little more eastern landfall than the 00Z GFS which had it striking western tip of Cuba while recurving
Also, this run depicts another Cape Verde storm exiting Africa
Second run in a row that shows a Caribbean hurricane towards the end of the month..a little more eastern landfall than the 00Z GFS which had it striking western tip of Cuba while recurving
Also, this run depicts another Cape Verde storm exiting Africa
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
caneseddy wrote:06z GFS still sticks with a future Caribbean storm (not 92L) and still has it moving WNW towards Hispaniola at 276 hours..at 288 approaching SE tip of Hispaniola...300 hours intensifying as it brushes southern coast of Hispaniola as it heads WNW.....at 312, weakening over southern tip of Haiti....at 324 moving W after hitting southern peninsula of Haiti....at 336 reintensifying after exiting Haiti...at 348 moving north towards southern tip of Cuba.....at 369 hurricane about to strike southern Cuba...at 372, hurricane landfall on the Granma Peninsula..at 384 after briefly exiting back to open water, second landfall on the Camaguey peninsula
Second run in a row that shows a Caribbean hurricane towards the end of the month..a little more eastern landfall than the 00Z GFS which had it striking western tip of Cuba while recurving
Also, this run depicts another Cape Verde storm exiting Africa
Obviously, this particular storm is probably a phantom cane, but does indicate the energy focusing back in the West ATL/Caribbean. In about 2 weeks, we should see activity close to home.
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Michael
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Re: Re:
caneseddy wrote:gatorcane wrote:Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z
yes it sure is gone and according to this run, after igor and 93l there is no activity until the end of the run which is September 27[/quote]
Yeah, there were some runs, of the GFS that had no activity after Danielle, then no activity after Earl and so on. I doubt we go 4 days without a named system on the map up until later October.
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Michael
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Re: Re:
caneseddy wrote:gatorcane wrote:Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z
yes it sure is gone and according to this run, after igor and 93l there is no activity until the end of the run which is September 27
Yeah, there were some runs, of the GFS that had no activity after Danielle, then no activity after Earl and so on. I doubt we go 4 days without a named system on the map up until later October.
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Michael
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
I don't know if this has been mentioned anywhere, but I was looking at the models and I want some opinions on what I thought I was seeing. Is there a possibility/probability of the fujiwhara effect coming into play between Igor and what I presume is the future Julia(93L) coming along behind him? This did not show up on all of them but I saw it on several of them.
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
0z GFS doesn't develop 92L but develops a biggie near the 300-range?
Where is the variable?
Where is the variable?

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- cycloneye
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
Active end to September.


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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: Long / Medium Range Model Runs
0z GFS shows a biggie in the western GOM in the 300hr+ range.....fantasy yeah I know but its been hinting aournd on such a scenario for some time....
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