Global model runs discussion

[HouTXmetro]

The long range shows recurve recurve recurve, but that's expected with La Nina season.

[Scorpion]

Lol.. 384 has Gaston taking up the entire western Gulf

[jasons2k]

Lol.. 384 has Gaston taking up the entire western Gulf

Craziness:

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,September will end on a very active note.

[KWT]

Note the big high over the NE States...thats what we've been fearing all season and whilst mid-late September is a rather unusual time to get systems all the way across, esp if they develop early, if we can get a system to form say 40-50W then there won't be much to lift them out, only to gain latitude.

The East coast needs to watch out, its a perfect pattern to drive a system into them if that does set-up...

[Stormcenter]

The model runs have been more entertaining then the storms themselves this season. That in itself says a lot about the 2010 season so far.

[Macrocane]

What do you mean by entertaining? Because the storms have been very interesting for me this season.

[caneseddy]

00Z GFS, which shows Igor recurving and brushing Atlantic Canada is showing a developing system down past the Windward Islands at around 252 hours and intensifies it in the central Caribbean

At 300 hours, it has it as a hurricane SE of Jamaica...high to the north steering it West....at 369, major hurricane heading towards the Yucatan channel..at 372 starts to recurve to the north past 83W approaches southern coast of Cuba..run ends with this major hurricane going over western Cuba

If this run verifies (and with this long range, not a very high probability), South Florida seems to be in the crosshairs yet again (where have I seen that before )

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

[blp]

I have been looking at the ultra long range CFS this week and I have noticed that it is advertising activity beginning to happen in the Caribbean at the end of the month. The runs have been inconsistent in terms of pinpointing a system but I am looking more at the pattern and judging by its successful record so far in predicting the weakness at 60W this year I give it a little more weight. Let's see if the GFS continues to show development in the Carribean.


Thursday 00z 528hr CFS


Wednesday 432 hr CFS


Tuesday 396hr CFS

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS, which shows Igor recurving and brushing Atlantic Canada is showing a developing system down past the Windward Islands at around 252 hours and intensifies it in the central Caribbean

At 300 hours, it has it as a hurricane SE of Jamaica...high to the north steering it West....at 369, major hurricane heading towards the Yucatan channel..at 372 starts to recurve to the north past 83W approaches southern coast of Cuba..run ends with this major hurricane going over western Cuba

If this run verifies (and with this long range, not a very high probability), South Florida seems to be in the crosshairs yet again (where have I seen that before )

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

Well I'm glad its 384 hours out, though as we move into late September into October, I wouldn't surpised to see some threats for Florida, since we are in an active, La Nina season, and October is the month more systems have hit Southern Florida than any other month

[caneseddy]

06z GFS still sticks with a future Caribbean storm (not 92L) and still has it moving WNW towards Hispaniola at 276 hours..at 288 approaching SE tip of Hispaniola...300 hours intensifying as it brushes southern coast of Hispaniola as it heads WNW.....at 312, weakening over southern tip of Haiti....at 324 moving W after hitting southern peninsula of Haiti....at 336 reintensifying after exiting Haiti...at 348 moving north towards southern tip of Cuba.....at 369 hurricane about to strike southern Cuba...at 372, hurricane landfall on the Granma Peninsula..at 384 after briefly exiting back to open water, second landfall on the Camaguey peninsula


Second run in a row that shows a Caribbean hurricane towards the end of the month..a little more eastern landfall than the 00Z GFS which had it striking western tip of Cuba while recurving

Also, this run depicts another Cape Verde storm exiting Africa

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS still sticks with a future Caribbean storm (not 92L) and still has it moving WNW towards Hispaniola at 276 hours..at 288 approaching SE tip of Hispaniola...300 hours intensifying as it brushes southern coast of Hispaniola as it heads WNW.....at 312, weakening over southern tip of Haiti....at 324 moving W after hitting southern peninsula of Haiti....at 336 reintensifying after exiting Haiti...at 348 moving north towards southern tip of Cuba.....at 369 hurricane about to strike southern Cuba...at 372, hurricane landfall on the Granma Peninsula..at 384 after briefly exiting back to open water, second landfall on the Camaguey peninsula


Second run in a row that shows a Caribbean hurricane towards the end of the month..a little more eastern landfall than the 00Z GFS which had it striking western tip of Cuba while recurving

Also, this run depicts another Cape Verde storm exiting Africa

Obviously, this particular storm is probably a phantom cane, but does indicate the energy focusing back in the West ATL/Caribbean. In about 2 weeks, we should see activity close to home.

[gatorcane]

Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z

[caneseddy]

Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z

yes it sure is gone and according to this run, after igor and 93l there is no activity until the end of the run which is September 27

[Ivanhater]

Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z

yes it sure is gone and according to this run, after igor and 93l there is no activity until the end of the run which is September 27[/quote]

Yeah, there were some runs, of the GFS that had no activity after Danielle, then no activity after Earl and so on. I doubt we go 4 days without a named system on the map up until later October.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs 384 hour phantom storm gone on the 12z

yes it sure is gone and according to this run, after igor and 93l there is no activity until the end of the run which is September 27

Yeah, there were some runs, of the GFS that had no activity after Danielle, then no activity after Earl and so on. I doubt we go 4 days without a named system on the map up until later October.

[vbhoutex]

I don't know if this has been mentioned anywhere, but I was looking at the models and I want some opinions on what I thought I was seeing. Is there a possibility/probability of the fujiwhara effect coming into play between Igor and what I presume is the future Julia(93L) coming along behind him? This did not show up on all of them but I saw it on several of them.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z GFS doesn't develop 92L but develops a biggie near the 300-range?

Where is the variable?

[cycloneye]

Active end to September.

[ROCK]

0z GFS shows a biggie in the western GOM in the 300hr+ range.....fantasy yeah I know but its been hinting aournd on such a scenario for some time....