ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[ozonepete]

The eye does appear to be contracting on satellite, but there is a nice ring of red around the eye. An EWRC will probably begin overnight and end sometime later tomorrow.

There's nothing to indicate a ERC will be starting any time soon. Hurricanes should have a intense ring of convection around the eye. In-fact a-lot of the most intense Hurricanes will have a solid intense ring of convection more then -80c around the eye. In the ssd IR loops -80c convection is represented as black. So far we have not seen that with Igor.

wxman_91 described very well the evidence that an ERC could be coming soon. BTW, Isabel, as have many other hurricanes, completed an ERC without any -80C cloudtops. And an ERC in a storm of this magnitude would be pretty common.

Also, as I said before, ISabel became a cat 5 AFTER it did an ERC. Since Igor is not even over the warmest SSTs yet, it could quite easily do an ERC in the next 12-24 hours and then go on to cat 5. Still reminds me of Isabel.

[Florida1118]

I'll admit though, people in the northern Lesser Antilles who are watching the satellite must be sweating right now...

I think people in Bermuda are sweating bullets currently, I would be.

Yes, Bermudians must be biting their nails with the models bring Igor close to the Island

[wx247]

What is the lat/long of San Juan, PR?

[cycloneye]

What is the lat/long of San Juan, PR?

18.3N-66.0W

[wxman57]

Take a look at a water vapor loop. It appears Igor is approaching the western edge of the ridge now. So it should begin a WNW motion by tomorrow. That should keep it well NE of the Caribbean.

[Fego]

Take a look at a water vapor loop. It appears Igor is approaching the western edge of the ridge now. So it should begin a WNW motion by tomorrow. That should keep it well NE of the Caribbean.

This water vapor loop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[ozonepete]

Take a look at a water vapor loop. It appears Igor is approaching the western edge of the ridge now. So it should begin a WNW motion by tomorrow. That should keep it well NE of the Caribbean.

Looks to me Igor passed it already and hasn't turned.

[wxman57]

Take a look at a water vapor loop. It appears Igor is approaching the western edge of the ridge now. So it should begin a WNW motion by tomorrow. That should keep it well NE of the Caribbean.

Looks to me Igor passed it already and hasn't turned.

Not yet, it will be at the western edge tomorrow. Should see the gradual turn starting tomorrow.

[Steve H.]

Again, maybe my eyes are admittedly, not as good as they used to be, but it still looks like Igor is heading WSW.

[plasticup]

Yes, Bermudians must be biting their nails with the models bring Igor close to the Island

They've had so many close calls this season, they won't even look at it until the Watches are up.

[sponger]

I hate to ask but can someone post the steering map?

[Florida1118]

Yes, Bermudians must be biting their nails with the models bring Igor close to the Island

They've had so many close calls this season, they won't even look at it until the Watches are up.

Well a Cat.4-5 Should be getting their attention them being in the middle of the Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

[ozonepete]

I hate to ask but can someone post the steering map?

No problem. Here's the latest from CIMSS:



Remember this is current steering. It will change over time...

[mf_dolphin]

I must admit it is looking more annular with every pass. Almost no spiral bands and a doughnt core.

Although a reading of 1 isn't so great. I give him a 15 at least. (Based on no scientific reasoning what so ever!

It's not annular... there have been plenty of small convective blowups on the periphery of the CDO (not characteristics of stable annular storms) and microwave images show numerous rainbands surrounding the eyewall.

The eye does appear to be contracting on satellite, but there is a nice ring of red around the eye. An EWRC will probably begin overnight and end sometime later tomorrow.

Since there's absolutely no evidence I can see of a second eyewall forming I take that your statement is just a guess.

I can't judge whether he was guessing or not, but there is actually evidence for the start of an ERC tonight. First, microwave images show that outer rainbands are consolidating, which is a necessary precursor to an ERC. Second, in past intense hurricanes, I have observed ERC's to begin ~24 hours after the beginning of a RIC, often in the diurnal maximum subsequent to the one when the initial RIC occurred. Third, the eye is contracting and the cloud tops are cooling, which often signals the peak prior to the onset of an ERC.

Inductively I will argue that an ERC is likely to begin tonight, perhaps within the next 12 hr. Not guaranteed, of course - after all, Igor was a little closer to annular earlier today, so it might be a little more stable internally than most storms.

My point is that no evidence was offered other than the eye has slightly shrunk to support that an ERC would start tonight and be completed tomorrow. While I fully expect Igor to undergo an ERC at some point, right now I just don't see it starting to happen. The core looks extremely intense and very stable with no indication I've seen of a secondary eyewall even starting to form.

[Florida1118]

If Im correct by Wed. the TS wind radius should be about the size of Louisiana...

[dixiebreeze]

"My point is that no evidence was offered other than the eye has slightly shrunk to support that an ERC would start tonight and be completed tomorrow. While I fully expect Igor to undergo an ERC at some point, right now I just don't see it starting to happen. The core looks extremely intense and very stable with no indication I've seen of a secondary eyewall even starting to form."

Dolphin, the very "stability" of Igor is what makes me worry about a late turn (plus the slight SW bobbles).

[gatorcane]

Impressive hurricane I must say. Just about a zero chance of reaching the united states given the strong models consensus. It doesn't matter if it is a cat 10 it is not making it through that trough.

[plasticup]

Doesn't appear annular to me. Still a good deal of banding north and south.

4-5 hours ago those bands did not appear connected to the main convective mass, but they have since joined it and appear to be true banding arms. I agree with you, and expect the annular rating to be withdrawn in the next interval.

[hurricaneCW]

If Igor doesn't gain any latitude by 55W, then there's some cause for concern. Eye appears to be contracting even more now.