Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

Day 9 Euro...No recurvature with this pattern...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif

A hit to Puerto Rico?

[Vortex]

Everything I see at this point points towards the carribean...Azores High will keep it west than as Igor kicks out to the N/NE ridging sets up nicely across the western Atlantic...This is the type of pattern that gets CV storms into the Carribean and further West...

[ColinDelia]

Right now there are two vorticity pools. One around 6N, One around 11 N. PREDICT project has the pouch come off at 7.5N
72 hours from now it has it around 8N, 21W. Euro about the same. GFS even a little south of there.

I did a historical search of TCs within 65 nm of 8N, 21W. No matches in any month, any year. Again, some evidence that if this comes off that far South it might travel west a ways without developing.

[lonelymike]

So what's the end result with the Euro, CMS and GFS Colin? Hurricane hits or just a wave into the Carib?

Need to plan on making the coffee if I'm going to stay up late watching Ivan, Rock and the rest of the late nite crew sit up arguing over the late nite model runs.

[hurricaneCW]

This is going to be a somewhat different pattern than it has been once Igor and Julia leave. There will be much more western Atlantic ridging although there could be more of a weakness in the central Atlantic around 45-50W. If a storm can stay rather low, than there's no reason why they can't make it into the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolling...

[Vortex]

H+36 moving off African coast at low latitude



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60..continues very low latitude



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[Vortex]

H+96 continues west at low latitude.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Vortex]

H+120 continues west around 10N



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Vortex]

H+156 stronger moving w/wnw



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[Vortex]

H+174 much stronger still westbound


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

looking like this is going to come into the islands based on the pattern..very low latitude...

[O Town]

Not nearly as impressive today. Seeing some spinning NW of where
they have PG145 marked as invest.

[KWT]

The weaker it stays the greater the threat down the line though, its getting close to the time where the CV season starts to drain away....and the threat transfers into the Caribbean region.

I suspect we will have a player to watch maybe 5-7 days time just as the other systems in the basin either hit land or recurve away...

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs indicates the next couple of Cape Verde systems will be low riders and slow developers. The subtropical ridging gets re-established across the Atlantic as well. Also, we're definitely getting closer to that time were it becomes difficult for Cape Verde systems to quickly develop far to the east. Late September and October could be the greatest period of a U.S. landfall threat this season.

[BigA]

18Z HWRF also appears to develop this at the end of the IGOR/Julia run

[ColinDelia]

0z GFS was really weird. It has the vorticity split into two separate storms at 60 hours around 20W.
No way.

[cycloneye]

ColinDelia, how does it look now on the vorticity front?

[KWT]

The 0z GFS looks more realistic for a late September La Nina track to me, which usually is prime time for Caribbean Crusiers.

The 06z GFS weakens the ridge thats been sitting over the SE states which IMO is a slightly odd move given its pretty much been in place for months and I don't see any major pattern shift either occuring...

That being said its track is more of a classic October type track...but I think 00z is closer to the mark then 06z...thankfully for Florida...though that type of track is one to keep in mind from the 06z!